Glassnode co-founder Rafael said Bitcoin has entered a valuation zone historically associated with market lows, adding that according to current on-chain data, the most likely low range is between $46,000 and $54,000.
According to the analyst, in a more severe capitulation scenario, the $35,000 to $40,000 range appears to be the last line of defense for Bitcoin.
Rafael noted that Bitcoin recently fell to the $62,000 level and is trading around 50% below its all-time high, adding that the price is now approaching valuation levels where the lowest formations were seen in past cycles. The analyst added that Bitcoin has fallen below its median investor cost for the first time since December 2022 and is currently trading in a key support zone between the median realized price of $64,100 and the 200-week moving average of $61,700.
According to Rafael’s assessment, Bitcoin has deeper cost bases, below the 200-week moving average. These levels are approximately Realization Price at $54,000, CVDD at $46,000, Balanced Price at $40,000, and Delta Price at $35,000. The analyst noted that in all major bear markets in the past, the price rallied after hitting these areas.
Rafael specifically noted that the CVDD indicator is historically one of the most reliable bottom indicators, stating that in previous cycles, Bitcoin has typically bottomed 5-18% above the CVDD level. He added that according to current data, CVDD is around $46,200, therefore, the range of $46,000 to $54,000 stands out as the most likely lower region.
Related news A historic moment has arrived: Ethereum is poised to become the third largest cryptocurrency – Bloomberg veteran Mike McGlone weighs in
However, Rafael pointed out that Bitcoin has seen shallower corrections with each cycle. While the peak-to-trough retracements of previous major bear markets were around 85%, 84% and 77%, respectively, the analyst noted that in the current cycle, the decline has been limited so far to around 50%. While that doesn’t entirely rule out a deeper capitulation, he said it increases the likelihood that a potential bottom will form at the upper end of the range.
In the optimistic scenario, Rafael said the first significant recovery zone is between $75,000 and $79,000. He noted that this is where the short-term investor’s cost floor, the real market average and the 200-day moving average converge, and that the price’s return to these levels would be the first sign of a market recovery. Rafael also indicated that the 50-week moving average around $93,000, followed by the previous all-time high, would be seen as broader resistance zones.
The analyst specifically added that these levels do not constitute a price prediction and Bitcoin bottoms cannot be definitively identified in advance.
*This does not constitute investment advice.
