Bitcoin edged higher after hitting a low near $58,500, but one of this cycle’s most accurate forecasters isn’t convinced the worst is over. Markus Thielen, founder and CEO of 10x Research, said this week that the modest recovery is unlikely to continue and that Bitcoin could fall as low as $46,000 to $47,000 before finding its true cycle bottom.
The rest of the article remains unchanged from the previous version, with Thielen’s analysis on ETF outflows, the absence of significant buyers, Elliott Wave targets, the Fed’s outlook, and his comparisons to the 2022 to 2023 cycle all unchanged.
No real buyer in sight
Thielen’s short-term bearish view is based on a simple observation: the market has lost its main source of demand. Strategy, formerly MicroStrategy, was the largest buyer of Bitcoin year-to-date, deploying approximately $13 billion in acquisitions. These purchases have slowed considerably. Meanwhile, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have lost about $7 billion in net outflows since mid-May, when the first inflation report shifted the macro environment away from risk assets.
“There is no real buyer in the market right now,” Thielen said. “That’s why we’re still in this period of ETF liquidation.”
He also noted that the average ETF buyer is now significantly underwater, and many of these holders are starting to cut their losses around the $60,000 level, adding additional selling pressure precisely where the market needs support.
The Path to $46,000 and Back
Thielen’s Elliott Wave analysis traces a clear structure. Bitcoin made a five-wave advance from late 2022 to the 2025 peak, and the current decline represents the corrective phase. Wave A took Bitcoin back to around $63,000 in February. Wave B produced a counter-trend rally from $82,000 to $83,000. Wave C, the current decline, targets the $46,000 to $47,000 range.
Once that level is reached, Thielen expects a roughly 30% rally back toward $60,000 to $65,000 by the end of the year, driven by a shift in posture from the Federal Reserve as inflation subsides and oil prices fall following the resolution of geopolitical tensions.
The Fed is the key variable
The macro vise gripping Bitcoin tightened significantly when Kevin Warsh was named Fed chairman in late January. Since then, each inflation figure has reinforced the hawkish narrative, and markets now assess the probability of at least one rate hike before the end of the year at 70%. According to Thielen, until this expectation is reversed, Bitcoin lacks the macroeconomic catalyst needed for sustained upside.
It draws a direct parallel to 2022 and 2023, where Bitcoin spent months trading sideways between $16,000 and $30,000 before the Grayscale SEC victory in August 2023 finally changed sentiment. The lesson of this cycle is that lows form slowly and only become sentimentally bullish well after the low has already been reached.
When the lower form
Thielen’s base case scenario indicates that a bottom will form during the fourth quarter of 2026, perhaps around October, which is consistent with historical bear market timing patterns that suggest cycles typically bottom out around 360 to 380 days after their peak. He plans to be a buyer below $50,000 and expects Bitcoin to be significantly higher by 2027.
