Jamie Coutts, chief crypto analyst at Real Vision, said Bitcoin may be nearing the final stages of its current bear market, but the downturn is not technically over yet. According to Coutts, some signals emerging from long-term indicators suggest that selling pressure and negative momentum are starting to weaken.
Bitcoin price is trading approximately 50% below its all-time high of $126,100 recorded in October 2025. Coutts described the current price movement as a “typical bear market,” noting that Bitcoin’s volatility has decreased by approximately 50% compared to the previous market cycle.
According to the analyst, the decrease in volatility suggests that the current bear market may not be as severe as in the past. However, Coutts cautioned against assuming the market would repeat past cycles exactly, noting that all trend indicators tracked are still significantly bearish.
Coutts said bullish divergences are starting to appear in long-term momentum indicators. While noting that this suggests a slowing of negative momentum, the analyst added that these signals do not necessarily mean that Bitcoin is technically out of a bear market.
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Coutts said that tightening global liquidity conditions, as well as deteriorating on-chain demand, played a significant role in Bitcoin’s previous decline, and indicated that demand indicators must strengthen again for a sustainable recovery.
Coutts, however, takes a more cautious approach to long-term price predictions, stating that he is skeptical of expectations that Bitcoin will reach $1 million by 2030. The analyst considers BTC rising to between $200,000 and $250,000 over the next two to three years to be a more realistic scenario.
Coutts also argued that the Bitcoin community needs to more openly address potential threats posed by quantum computers before 2027. Noting that preparing, testing, and implementing large-scale protocol updates can take around five years, Coutts called for rapid action against potential security risks.
*This does not constitute investment advice.
