Itaú, Brazil’s largest private bank, has recommended in a new research report that investors allocate 1-3% of their portfolios to Bitcoin by 2026.
The bank cited the need to diversify risks and protect against currency fluctuations as the main rationale for this recommendation.
The report states that despite the recent decline in Bitcoin prices, it plays a complementary role in wallets amid growing global and geopolitical uncertainties. The analysis argues that crypto assets are no longer simply a speculative tool, but have become an alternative stabilizing element for portfolios exposed to economic uncertainties.
Renato Eid, an analyst at Itaú who signed the document, said that Bitcoin does not have the same dynamics as stocks, fixed income instruments or local markets. According to Eid, the global and decentralized nature of the asset provides different opportunities for investors who want to maintain a risk-return balance in negative scenarios. The report also notes that despite high volatility, Bitcoin retains its long-term appreciation potential.
The report notes that the poor performance recorded in 2025 is not an isolated incident. He recalled that Bitcoin was trading at around $93,500 at the start of the year, fell to around $80,000 and tested all-time highs above $125,000. However, the appreciation of the Brazilian real against the dollar amplified losses for local investors. According to TradingView data, Bitcoin’s annual dollar loss remained at 3.5%, while the decline in real terms reached 16.2%.
The analysis also adds that strong currency fluctuations directly affect Bitcoin’s performance in Brazil. It was noted that the dollar exchange rate approaching 6.30 reals in December 2024 gave new strength to BTC positions, highlighting the asset’s function as a hedge against currency risk during periods of stress. Therefore, Itaú argued that the real risk could be not taking any positions in the market.
He emphasized a disciplined approach as a strategy. According to the bank, short-term price forecasts often fail in the case of risky assets. It is therefore recommended to take a long-term perspective, adjust positions through regular rebalancing and avoid impulsive decisions based on recent volatility. Eid described this approach as a “combination of moderation and resilience”.
The report states that Bitcoin should be a complementary element of a balanced portfolio, not its core element.
*This does not constitute investment advice.
