The price of Solana has fallen by approximately 12% over the past 30 days. As we approach 2026, the chart shows a mix of bullish and bearish signals.
Some indicators point to a rebound in January, but others indicate pressure could persist if momentum doesn’t materialize.
The story is optimistic, but ETF flows and expert opinions are mixed
January was a strong month for Solana. The average return sits at almost 59%, with median gains around 22%. The pattern becomes more pronounced when December ends in red.
In 2022, SOL fell by 29.6% in December and in January 2023 it increased by 140%. In December 2024, SOL fell by 20.5% and in January 2025 it increased by 22.3%. This month is down 6.94% so far, which is statistically trending toward a rebound.
Red December to Green January Story: CryptoRank
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ETF data supports this idea. Since their launch, the Solana spot ETFs have not recorded a single week of net outflows. The most recent week added $13.14 million (week still incomplete), bringing the cumulative inflows from millions to $755.77.
This continued demand demonstrates selective confidence in SOL at a time when other majors are facing exits.
ETF feed: SoSo value
The B2BinPay analytics team describes what this flow model means for Solana and the broader market, in its conversation with BeInCrypto.:
“Investors are not wholesale moving away from Bitcoin and Ethereum into the altcoin market. They are prioritizing a small group of liquid, well-known tokens where the decline appears controllable and positions can be closed quickly if necessary.”
This is why only a few altcoins such as Solana or XRP are experiencing inflows, while most of the market is calm. Current flows to Solana should not be interpreted as the start of the new season. These measures are narrow and particularly selective,” they said.
This supports SOL’s ETF inflows, but it also cautions against viewing this move as a broad altseason setup.
Chart signals suggest reversal, but EMAs and derivatives show resistance
On the two-day chart, SOL price made a low between November 21 and December 17, while the RSI (Relative Strength Index, a momentum gauge showing overbought/oversold strength) made a higher low. This is a bullish divergence and may indicate an early trend reversal if buyers follow through.
Bullish Divergence: TradingView
But a bearish situation lies right next door.
In the same time frame, the 100-period EMA (exponential moving average, a trend-following line that reacts more quickly to price) is about to cross below the 200-period EMA.
If this bearish crossover is confirmed, downward pressure could continue until the end of December or early January before a recovery can persist. Until this crossover is avoided or reversed, the technical situation remains divided.
Solana has bearish indicators in play: TradingView
The positioning of derivative products is more cautious. On Hyperliquide, almost all traders are net short over the last seven days.
Top 100 Addresses, Smart Money, and Solana Whale Accounts are all net. Yet some groups (smart money, public figures, and criminal winners) are slowly opening long positions. This could be in anticipation of a bullish January 2026, as highlighted previously.
SOL Derivatives: Nansen
This mixture leaves the configuration balanced. The momentum suggests a reversal could be forming. EMAs and derivatives positioning argue for patience. If Solana wants to build a rally in January, it needs to keep this derivative sentiment away from shorts while avoiding the EMA crossover.
Solana key price points: $129 is pivot, $116 is failsafe
SOL is trading near $124. A two-day close above $129 would confirm strength and open a path towards $150. The $150 offset could then target $171 if ETF inflows hold and RSI momentum continues to build.
The cost baseline heatmap data explains why $129 is important. One of the strongest supply clusters is between $123 and $124, and SOL is currently fighting there.
A close above $129 clears this cluster and removes immediate overhead resistance. Above that, supply decreases to $165 to $167, improving the chances of continuation if volume arrives.
A cost-based heat map shows where large groups of holders have acquired their tokens, highlighting areas where supply or demand may cluster.
Solana Heatmap: Glassnode
On the other hand, $116 remains safe. The loss of this level breaks the historical “red December, green January” trend and results in the continuation of the downtrend. A confirmed bearish crossover of the EMA, accompanied by a break below $116, would reset expectations for the month.
Solana Price Analysis: TradingView
For now, trade is defined by two thresholds. Above $129, bullish momentum allows movement towards $150 and $171. Below $116, buyers lose control and the usual January strength may not manifest.
The article Solana Price Prediction: What to Expect from SOL in January 2026 appeared first on BeInCrypto.
