Cardano price is trading near $0.2812 today, down 0.11% over the past 24 hours as the token tests critical ascending trendline support. The move comes as Cardano founder Charles Hoskinson warned at the Hong Kong Consensus that the crypto faces “90 to 180 days” of work, citing retail exhaustion and a broken narrative rather than a lack of catalysts.
Hoskinson calls for 90 to 180 days of pain ahead
Speaking to CoinDesk at Consensus Hong Kong, Hoskinson said crypto faces another three to six months of downward pressure. “This one particularly stings because we were expecting a very strong cycle in 2025 and we didn’t really understand it,” he said. “We just have to get through the next 90 to 180 days. It’s going to be tough.”
The problem, according to Hoskinson, is not a lack of catalysts. Crypto got everything it asked for: BlackRock ETFs, government Bitcoin reserves, favorable regulation. But retail investors remain exhausted after years of broken promises. The NFT mania, the Luna collapse, the FTX implosion, the SEC crackdown, the memecoin cycles – every phase promised relief was only six months away.
“We got to town and the hotel was closed, the restaurants closed,” Hoskinson said, using a travel metaphor. “People are deeply frustrated. » The narrative that kept retail engaged has ceased to work, transforming the current correction into a crisis of morale as much as of the market.
Open Interest Falls as Conviction Weakens
$ADA Derived analysis (Source: Coinglass)
According to Coinglass, Cardano’s open stake fell 9.51% to $446.98 million, one of the largest one-day drops in recent weeks. Volume fell 6.13% to $839.68 million, confirming that participation is falling alongside falling open interest. When both indicators fall together, it indicates that traders are closing their positions rather than accumulating at lower prices.
Long/short ratios show an extreme bullish orientation. Binance accounts hold no shorts on 1-hour time frames, with $566.72 million longs. OKX sports a long/short ratio of 1.77, indicating that leverage remains positioned for recovery despite negative price action. The top trader’s positioning shows $226.74 million in long positions versus $12.53 million in short positions over 12-hour periods.
The disconnect between highly skewed long positioning and declining open interest suggests that long liquidations are occurring, as supported by price testing. When leverage is stacked to one side and open interest decreases, this generally indicates forced closings rather than voluntary exits.
Price Tests Ascending Trendline Support
$ADA Price dynamics (Source: TradingView)
On the daily chart, Cardano is testing the ascending trendline that provides support from the December lows. The 20-day EMA stands at $0.2912, the 50-day EMA stands at $0.3331, the 100-day EMA stands at $0.4025, and the 200-day EMA stands at $0.5036. All four EMAs remain stacked downward, creating a clear ceiling of resistance.
The graph shows:
- Prices test ascending trendline from December lows
- Parabolic SAR at $0.2340, marking next support if trendline breaks
- $0.28 psychological support under pressure
- $0.2912 Resistance at 20-day EMA
Cardano fell from above $0.44 in early January to a low near $0.24 on February 11, marking a 45% correction. The recent rebound to $0.28 represents a 17% recovery from these lows, but the structure remains correct. The ascending trendline represents the last line of defense before a retest of the February lows.
A break below the trendline would expose the psychological $0.25 level and possibly the $0.2340 SAR zone. A close above $0.2912 would reverse the 20-day EMA and signal the first sign of trend exhaustion, but current momentum points toward weakness rather than recovery.
Ascending trendline provides intraday support
$ADA Price Action (Source: TradingView)
The 1-hour chart reveals that Cardano is bouncing off ascending trendline support near $0.2800. The Supertrend sits at $0.2895, acting as immediate resistance. The RSI holds at 42.28, approaching oversold territory but not yet showing reversal signals.
The structure shows:
- Price defending ascending trendline support
- Higher lows form from $0.24 base
- Supertrend resistance caps upside at $0.2895
Buyers are attempting to defend the trendline for the third time in recent sessions. Each test brings an increased risk of collapse, as support levels weaken with repeated tests. Sellers continue to reject prices above $0.2895, preventing any meaningful recovery attempts.
A clear break above $0.2895 would reverse the supertrend and place psychological resistance at $0.30 back into the range. A break below the ascending trendline would trigger another decline towards $0.27 and possibly $0.25 if the selling accelerates.
Outlook: Will Cardano Rise?
The next move depends on whether $ADA can hold the ascending trendline support and reclaim $0.2912.
- Bullish case: A bounce from the trendline with a close above $0.2912 would reverse the 20-day EMA and place $0.30 back in the range. Recovering $0.30 would signal the end of the corrective phase.
- Bearish case: A break below the ascending trendline exposes $0.25, with further decline towards $0.2340 if the 90 to 180 days of pain predicted by Hoskinson comes true. The loss of the trendline confirms a deeper correction to come.
If Cardano holds the trendline and rises above $0.2912, the momentum shifts. Loss of trendline support turns this move into a retest of February lows near $0.24.
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