Jiang Chuor, co-founder of mining pool BTC.TOP, released a long-term forecast for Bitcoin on June 25, saying the currency could bottom between $42,000 and $44,000 at some point during the October-December 2026 period.
This prediction came as the top cryptocurrency was trading at nearly $62,000, down about 51% from its all-time high, which topped $126,000 in October 2025.
MSTR Stock Sentiment Could Lead to Bitcoin’s Next Bottom:
According to the same analyst, Strategy’s mNAV ratio – which compares its stock price to the value of its bitcoin holdings per share – has entered the same range seen during the previous bear market.
A number above 1 means investors are paying a premium, while a number below 1 indicates increasing pessimism.
According to Jiang’s assessment, this index fell to 0.72, which is very close to the 0.70 level recorded in May 2022.
He believes that the current reading could indicate a trough in investor sentiment regarding “strategy,” although it is not necessarily a trough for Bitcoin itself.
The analyst explained that when the “mNAV” index bottomed in May 2022, Bitcoin was trading at almost $31,000, then it hit the bottom of the cycle six months later when it fell to around $15,000.
If the same lag applies now, Jiang assumes Bitcoin will bottom in the final quarter of 2026, with prices between around $42,000 and $44,000.
His prediction was also based on a four-year market model that compares Bitcoin’s long-term price fluctuations to a bouncing ball, with each bounce losing some of its amplitude.
According to this model, as the total market value of Bitcoin increases, its volatility naturally decreases from one cycle to the next.
The market context surrounding Jiang’s prediction:
Bitcoin’s current weakness is not hard to spot in the data, as Santiment noted earlier today, wallets holding between 10 and 10,000 BTC lost 45,074 BTC in eight days, which helped push the asset below $60,000 for the first time since October 2024.
Data from CoinGlass showed Bitcoin liquidations amounting to approximately $416 million over the past day, of which buying centers acquired over $319 million.
Analyst Wise Crypto described this move as a leverage clearing process, affecting over 175,000 traders when the Bitcoin price momentarily touched $59,000.
The price of Bitcoin has relatively recovered since the recent decline, trading near $62,000 at the time of reporting, although it is still down around 4% over the past week and almost 20% over the past month.
On the other hand, another market observer, Ali Martinez, warned that the Coinbase Premium Index remains negative for 46 consecutive days.
This indicator compares the price of Bitcoin on the Coinbase platform with its counterpart on external platforms, and a negative reading indicates low demand from US investors and institutions.
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