With just a few days until the end of June, we can say that the price of Bitcoin needs some kind of miracle to end the month in the green, since current data shows a significant drop of 18%.
On-chain data paints a picture of a number of key factors behind Bitcoin’s latest sharp decline and what needs to change for the price to be stronger in July.
No demand:
In a recent article on X, popular analyst Ali Martinez explained that Bitcoin accumulation levels have stalled over the past seven months, saying:
Bitcoin’s apparent demand has remained negative for 208 consecutive days and recently fell to a new low of negative 273,000 Bitcoins.
The sharp decline in this indicator indicates a decrease in real demand in the spot market, as the indicator compares the production of new bitcoins with the development of existing stocks.
This change in trend follows the massive selloff in early October, when more than $19 billion evaporated in a single day.
From November 9, 2025 to May 31, 2026, this demand, Martinez added, remained quietly oscillating in the negative zone between zero and minus 150,000 bitcoins, indicating a light but stable distribution of supply.
However, the index fell below 273,000 bitcoins after the declines in early and late June, and has stabilized at that level without moving.
The fact that the index remains in the negative zone for such a long period of time means that a large amount of old supply is entering the trade at a faster rate than the spot market can absorb.
This significant divergence suggests that selling pressures are still outweighing new capital inflows, which is the first critical factor that must change for a stronger and more positive July.
Coinbase Bonuses:
A few days ago, the same analyst Martinez highlighted another indicator that shows the lack of real demand for Bitcoin, but specifically from American investors.
Coinbase Premium has been stuck in the red zone for about two months, notably since it entered the negative zone after the Bitcoin price peaked above $82,000 in mid-May, and has remained there since then.
US institutional demand is a critical factor in Bitcoin price action and is the second factor expected to change in July.
Cash outflows:
In line with the developments mentioned above, Bitcoin spot ETFs have been experiencing a massive decline for weeks.
Last week was no exception, as red dominated all of his days.
On Thursday, the day Bitcoin’s price fell to $58,000 for the first time in nearly two years, investors withdrew nearly $700 million from the funds.
Lacey Zhang, research analyst at Bitget Wallet, said Bitcoin outflows are expected to stabilize before volatility returns to normal following the massive $11 billion options expiration, which occurred on June 26.
She concluded by saying:
If retracements resume and the post-expiration position remains defensive, the market could remain volatile near its current levels.
The key point is that Bitcoin’s trend in July could be shaped not so much by last week’s PCE data as by how flows, leverage and pooling behave on the network in the 72 hours following settlement at expiration.
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