As the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) prepares to meet for its highly anticipated meeting from July 29 to 30, global financial markets are preparing for a crucial moment. While it is widely expected that the Federal Reserve maintain stable interest rates, the real drama may be outside the limits of central banking policy. The latest comments of former President Donald Trump have introduced a wave of political uncertainty that could be reverberated far beyond the Fed press conference.
According to Kalshi, a real money prediction platform known for its precision in the prognosis of economic events, there is a 95% probability that the Federal Reserve does not increase interest rates during this meeting. Only 5% of the participants foresee a possible cut of 25 basic points, while an insignificant fraction, less than 1%, anticipates a more aggressive movement.
This consensus reflects the current economic trends: a labor market that gradually softens, relieving inflation and a cautious fed of excessive correction. Despite this sense of calm, Wall Street is not completely at ease. The real question now is not only if the Fed will stop, but what comes next.
The forward guide takes the center of the stage
The Fed decision is expected on July 30 to maintain the status quo in interest rates. However, attention is quickly changing towards the guide forward, which refers to the communication of the Central Bank on its future policy intentions. With the price of market participants in at least two target cuts between now and early 2026, the Fed tone could have a decisive impact on assets prices, especially in the cryptographic sector.
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During the past week, Bitcoin and Ethereum have published modest profits, which reflects the optimism of investors on a change of deception. However, both assets experienced light setbacks in the last 24 hours as merchants began to cover against unexpected volatility. In the broader context, cryptographic merchants often respond quickly to macroeconomic signals. A more accommodated diet could boost renewed enthusiasm in digital assets.
The unexpected Trump bomb about Powell
Just when the markets seemed to find balance, former President Donald Trump changed expectations with a cryptic but pointed message published in Truth Social: “Powell leaves very soon. I will miss him.” The statement, which lacked any formal clarification, has triggered a wave of speculation between financial and political circles equally.
Will Jerome Powell resign during the FOMC meeting? Is Trump simply positioning the influence before a possible re -election offer? Regardless of the intention, the moment of his comments has introduced a secondary narrative, a leadership instability in the Federal Reserve.
It is no secret that Trump and Powell have had a tense relationship. During Trump’s presidency, he often criticized Powell’s monetary position, accusing him of being too cautious and detrimental to growth. If Powell came out prematurely, his replacement could drastically alter the course of the Fed, potentially accelerating fees, or introducing new uncertainties.
Cryptographic markets juggled with politics and politics
In the midst of this whirlwind, the global cryptocurrency market is showing mixed signals. At the time of writing this article, the total Crypto market capitalization of $ 3.91 billion. The daily negotiation volume has increased almost 44% to $ 176.18 billion, which suggests a greater participation of the merchant before the Fed decision.
Despite the slight decreases in the prices of Bitcoin and Ethereum, the feeling of the market remains optimistic. The current cryptographic and greed index shows a level of “greed” of 75, indicating confidence among investors. However, that feeling could quickly change if Powell’s position looks under greater scrutiny.
Analysts warn that merchants must look beyond the rate of rate itself. “The biggest story is not whether there is a cut or not,” says Sarah Li, Macro Macro Strategist Chief of Cryptowatch Global. “It is the one who will lead the Fed when those cuts eventually occur. This leadership will shape everything, from the inflation of cryptographic regulation.”
Wall Street’s eyes in the next chapter of the Fed
Financial institutions are also emphasizing their perspective. JPMorgan Chase and Goldman Sachs have reviewed their expectations of tariff cuts, now predict that the ease of communication begins as soon as December 2025. These forecasts are driven by the decrease in employment openings, warm salary growth and consumer spending.
Even so, the Fed has emphasized a data -based approach. Any sign of resilience in inflation or GDP growth could delay the beginning of monetary flexibility. In this delicate environment, even subtle changes in the tone during the press conference of the president of the FED, Powell, could influence thousands of millions of capital flows.
Trump and Fed’s policy
Trump’s influence on the Fed, while technically indirect, remains powerful. As a favorite in the 2026 presidential race, their comments have considerable weight. If Powell was in fact, Trump’s eventual nominated could indicate a seismic change in monetary philosophy. Historically, Trump has favored low interest rates and monetary stimulus to stimulate economic growth.
But Powell’s mandate, marked by a mixture of caution and response capacity, has gained credibility in the party lines. A sudden game could shake the trust of investors in the independence of the Fed, a cornerstone of American economic policy.
Conclusion: A quiet and unstable exterior under
This week’s FOMC meeting can end without rate changes, but underground currents suggest anything less normal. On the surface, the Fed seems to be prepared to maintain the course. However, below, there is a swirl of uncertainty driven by Trump’s provocative comments and the continuous evolution of the United States economic panorama.
Investors, particularly those in volatile markets such as cryptography, must prepare for dual risks: the trajectory of monetary policy and the stability of the leadership of the Central Bank. As Powell takes the podium next week, markets will listen not only numbers, but also for nuances.
Writer
@Ellena
Ellena is an experienced cryptographic writer who loves to explore the intersection of blockchain technology and financial markets. She regularly provides information about the latest trends and innovations in the currency space.
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