Alex Thorn, Head of Corporate Research at Galaxy Digital, a leading company in the cryptocurrency market, has made remarkable assessments regarding the potential interactions between Bitcoin and quantum technologies.
Thorn shared common ideas that emerged from his meetings with investors, developers and industry representatives at events in Las Vegas.
According to Thorn, one of the most sensitive issues in the Bitcoin ecosystem is the status of the first coins believed to belong to Satoshi Nakamoto. He notes that these coins are largely held in Pay-to-Public-Key (P2PK) addresses, arguing that tampering with these assets could harm Bitcoin’s core value proposition around property rights. However, Thorn also states that the risk is not as great as is often claimed, pointing out that these coins are distributed across approximately 22,000 separate addresses, each containing 50 $BTC. This suggests that a potential quantum attack would require targeting a large number of addresses rather than just one.
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On the other hand, Thorn said that the greatest risk is actually concentrated in “honeypot” structures such as centralized exchanges and hot wallets, but that these parties can move to quantum-resistant (post-quantum) addresses if necessary. He also noted that the proposal known as the “hourglass” offers a potential solution that could mitigate quantum threats in the long term.
Thorn also discussed the current state of quantum technology, noting that “neutral atom” technology in particular is limited to long-range attacks and does not pose a widespread threat in the near term. He added that Google opening a new lab in this area could indicate that different technological approaches are being tested in the sector.
Thorn, who also analyzed data on market dynamics, pointed out that Bitcoin markets have been able to absorb large supply shocks in the past. According to him, markets have been able to balance even the movements of millions of people. $BTC over time. He said that even in a worst-case scenario, if Satoshi’s own coins entered the market, preserving Bitcoin’s fundamentals at the cost of a drop of up to 50% could be considered acceptable to many investors.
Thorn also highlighted the importance of continuing research into post-quantum cryptography for Bitcoin. He said developing, testing and maintaining new crypto solutions ready for use when needed would benefit the ecosystem, but also highlighted some risks to consider in this process. These include the dispersion of developer resources, the addition of insufficiently tested technologies to the protocol, and disagreements slowing network updates.
*This does not constitute investment advice.