VanEck outlined a long-term framework that values Bitcoin at around $2.9 million by 2050, according to a research blog post published Thursday by the asset manager.
The analysis, titled “Bitcoin Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions,” was authored by Matthew Sigel, the firm’s head of digital asset research, and Patrick Bush, senior investment analyst for digital assets. In this article, Sigel presents what VanEck describes as a baseline valuation model for bitcoin extending through 2050, estimating an annualized return of approximately 15% over the period.
Rather than presenting the estimate as a price target, the blog post characterizes it as an valuation exercise focused on how bitcoin could be used if its adoption significantly expands beyond its current role as a trading asset. VanEck’s framework does not rely on traditional stock valuation metrics, but rather models the value of Bitcoin through adoption scenarios.
Settlement layer and reserve asset
One of the key assumptions of the base case is the use of bitcoin as a settlement asset in global commerce. VanEck’s model assumes that Bitcoin could potentially handle between 5% and 10% of international trade settlement volume. Another hypothesis is that central banks gradually allocate a small portion of their reserves to bitcoin, reflecting diversification away from sovereign currencies over long-term horizons.
These assumptions represent a radical change from current conditions. As VanEck notes in his article, bitcoin today plays a negligible role in settling trade and is not held as a reserve asset by major central banks. The company recognizes that its base case scenario depends on regulatory clarity, operational infrastructure and political acceptance that have yet to materialize.
The authors also highlight the volatility that would likely accompany such adoption. VanEck models long-term annualized volatility of between about 40% and 70%, a range he compares to frontier markets rather than traditional financial assets. However, even in its bearish scenario, the company still expects positive long-term returns, reflecting what it describes as the growing structural importance of bitcoin.
VanEck’s framework places particular emphasis on macroeconomic factors. According to the post, Bitcoin’s historical price behavior has shown greater alignment with global liquidity trends than with stocks or commodities. The company says correlations with growth in the broader money supply, as well as a weakening relationship with the U.S. dollar, suggest that Bitcoin’s drivers could become more global over time.
From a portfolio perspective, the analysis suggests that relatively small allocations – typically between 1% and 3% – have historically improved risk-adjusted returns in diversified portfolios. The company emphasizes that this does not mean that Bitcoin is low risk, but rather that its volatility has not translated proportionately into portfolio-level risk when position sizes are limited.