The price stabilizes Bitcoin Currently at the $68,500 level, coinciding with the deadline he specified Asset In Iran on April 7, at a time when the cryptocurrency market is showing remarkable resilience and refusing to back down in the face of political pressure.
The White House maintained its stance rejecting any extension, demanding that Iran open the Strait of Hormuz under threat of strikes targeting civilian infrastructure. However, markets do not seem to be anticipating imminent disaster. Reflects an indicator S&P500 Same state of anticipation, since the correlation between Bitcoin and stocks has increased to enter a binary equation: either a geopolitical escalation which leads to a collective decline, or Trump withdraws from his threats, which pushes both assets to rise sharply.
On the institutional side, Spot Bitcoin ETFs saw inflows of $471 million over the past 24 hours, the highest daily figure in 30 days, indicating that institutions are not planning to exit the market at this time.
Live data appears on the channel from CryptoQuant Large quantities of coins left exchanges as the deadline approached, behavior consistent with whale collecting rather than distributing and selling them. It seems that the market does not view this situation as a real crisis, but rather as a simple political “maneuver”.
Why is the Iranian ultimatum a macroeconomic event and not just a geopolitical tension?
The mechanism here is clear and simple: any US strike on Iranian infrastructure would result in an oil supply shock, accelerating the pace of energy inflation and extending the time frame for the US Federal Reserve to cut interest rates. In this scenario, risky assets – including Bitcoin and stocks – would be revalued to lower levels.
This is a bearish scenario, and it is not an unlikely possibility. The S&P 500 will absorb inflation signals as a catalyst for a tightening of monetary policy, while Bitcoin, which remains heavily linked to stocks, will follow this decline in a risk-averse attitude.
As for the path of de-escalation, it goes in the opposite direction. If Trump backs down – whether by granting an extension, agreeing to terms through back channels, or lowering the threat cap – oil will decline and expectations of a rate cut will strengthen, making it easier for BTC and SPX to rise.
BREAKING: Iran has delivered its much-anticipated "10 points" response to the United States "15-point peace plan."
Iran’s 10-point plan includes:
1. Guarantee that Iran will no longer be attacked
2. Final end of the war, not just a ceasefire
3. End of Israeli strikes in Lebanon
4.…– Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) April 6, 2026
The geopolitical risk premium will then leave energy hedges and return to growth and risk assets. Given that Bitcoin is already consolidating at $69,000 despite maximum media pressure, it will have the opportunity to accelerate towards levels between $72,000 and $75,000.
However, Iran’s counterthreat of increased attacks on Persian Gulf energy sites if they are hit adds a “tail risk” that stocks or cryptocurrencies are not yet fully priced. This gap is something to keep in mind, because even if the market views the current situation as “under control”, history does not always agree with this reading within the first forty-eight hours of an escalation.
Bitcoin price forecast: breakout towards $75,000 or return to $64,000?
Bitcoin stands at $69,140, the conflict zone that has defined this cycle since late 2025. Immediate support is at $66,500 (50-day moving average), and any clear break below that level would open the door to the $64,000-$65,000 range, where the 200-day moving average currently sits.
The $66,500 level forms the cornerstone of the current structure; Its loss due to a geopolitical shock will lead to a very rapid deterioration of the technical structure.
On the upside, the $72,000 level represents the first real resistance, which is the ceiling formed during the March consolidation period. Continuing above $69,500 after the deadline sets the stage for a test of this level, and once above it, the next target will be $75,000, a level that analysts have described as the tipping point in the macroeconomic landscape in April.
The relative strength index (RSI) is moving around 52, which means the price is not in an overbought or oversold zone. The current scene appears to be a case of pressure preceding a price explosion, rather than a trend indicating a spike.
The bull case activates as soon as stability is confirmed above $69,500 after the deadline, with ETF flows continuing above $300 million daily, targeting $75,000 within five to seven sessions. On the other hand, the Bear Case is activated when an escalation occurs that exceeds the $66,500 level with high trading volume. In this scenario, the $64,000 level will become the first truly important support. Until one of these two conditions is met, 66,500 remains the only level traders should watch carefully.
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