Bitcoin is currently trading below the $80,000 level, coinciding with the release of US non-farm payrolls data on Friday, which saw a sharp and surprising decline. The employment increase in April was only 62,000, compared to 172,000 in March. This deterioration in the labor market generally indicates strengthening expectations for a change in U.S. federal policy, pushing riskier assets higher.
Something is wrong in the job market:
In February, US employers shed -448,000 jobs, the largest monthly decline since July 2020.
Then, in March, U.S. employers increased their hiring by +655,000 per month, the largest monthly increase on record, excluding the 2020 pandemic period.
Inasmuch as… pic.twitter.com/8m3x8qBWfp– Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) May 7, 2026
However, an immediate complication appeared on the scene; The average hourly wage increased by 3.8% on an annual basis, surpassing the previous figure of 3.5%. This wage growth keeps inflation alive and partly limits the Fed’s actions.
The hypothesis that Bitcoin could reach $120,000 requires cooperation from both sides of this equation; On the one hand, a weak labor market leads the way by signaling to the Fed the option to hold or cut rates, which increases the value of risky assets and reduces the opportunity cost of holding BTC. But on the other hand, stable wage growth closes this path.
How Jobs Data Impacts Bitcoin’s Ambition to Reach $120,000
The macroeconomic logic here is clear; A slowdown in hiring of this magnitude strengthens the argument that the U.S. labor market is cooling quickly enough to prevent the Fed from tightening monetary policy further. Markets are currently pricing in interest rate stability through 2026, and this weak data could push back expectations of future interest rate hikes, representing a reassessment favoring more accommodative monetary policy.
For Bitcoin, this influence mechanism is simple; Low interest rate expectations are weighing on the dollar and reducing returns on competing assets, which has historically been associated with the accumulation of Bitcoin holdings by institutions. The August 2025 scenario is proof of this, when employment data (which recorded only 22,000 jobs) pushed the price of Bitcoin past $113,000 as the chances of a rate cut increased to almost complete certainty.
From a technical point of view, the current status of Bitcoin must be respected. Alex Kubtsikevich, senior market analyst at FxPro, explains the technical structure:
Bitcoin pulled back from its 200-day moving average after briefly entering an overbought zone near the upper boundary of its ascending channel, while the channel’s lower boundary is located near $77,500, and breaking the overall trend would require a fall below the $75,000 level.
Wage growth: the variable the market cannot ignore
The 3.8% year-over-year wage growth is a “bump” in the way of otherwise positive data for Bitcoin. At this level, wages support services inflation, the most stable component of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) basket, giving the Fed legitimate cover to keep interest rates high for longer, regardless of weak employment numbers.
Here the influence mechanism goes in an undesirable direction for Bitcoin; Continued wage growth fuels service prices, which in turn fuel underlying inflation, preventing the Fed from making a smooth policy change. When the Fed is unable to change, interest rates remain high and the dollar remains supported, putting pressure on the risk premium associated with non-yielding assets like Bitcoin.
As long as wage growth remains above 3.5%, tensions will persist in the Fed’s dual mandate (full employment of the workforce and price stability), and these tensions will limit the ability of markets to incorporate strong accommodative measures.
The Coinbase premium index turned dark red in late April even as the price of Bitcoin continued to climb.
Classic distribution to individuals and institutions.
The red zone means that institutions and large buyers have been selling heavily for more than a week.
He is now slowly returning towards… pic.twitter.com/YLkLVm2SDk– Jérémie (@Jeremybtc) May 7, 2026
The move of Coinbase’s Bitcoin Premium Index into discount territory this week adds another layer of caution. This indicator measures the price gap between Coinbase and external platforms such as Binance; Green readings indicate demand from U.S. institutions, while reductions indicate the opposite. The rise above $80,000 was halted precisely when this premium disappeared.
Singapore-based trading firm QCP Capital summed up the broader macroeconomic risks clearly:
If crude oil prices fail to ease before the May 20 FOMC minutes, with Brent already above $100 per barrel and 97% of market expectations that things will not return to normal in the Strait of Hormuz by May 15, the stagflation scenario will become difficult to ignore.
Stagflation is considered the worst macroeconomic environment for Bitcoin’s position as a high-risk asset.
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