The bullish momentum in the Bitcoin market has exhausted and Bitcoin has now entered a distribution phase. This is seen in investors who are selling more and more stocks rather than increasing their exposure.
According to this week’s Bitfinex Alpha report, flow data and on-chain dynamics indicate that $BTC has emerged from the accumulation phase that led to its rally earlier this year. This signals the start of a period of strong selling pressure that could be seen $BTC Falling to levels last seen in early to mid-2024.
Bitcoin enters the distribution regime
Bitcoin already fell below $60,000 on June 5 due to large outflows from spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and continued macroeconomic headwinds. Although the asset has rebounded over the past two days and climbed back above this level, analysts believe that the recovery could hide a bigger change beneath the surface, namely the transition to a distribution regime.
During last week’s decline, $BTC fell to a multi-year low of $59,200, a level last seen in October 2024. This price also represents a 53% decline from the all-time high (ATH) of October 2025, a 28.5% decline from levels recorded in mid-May, and a 20% drop from the June monthly open. $BTC was unable to hold the $60,000 floor, which has been the price anchor since February.
With $BTC After retreating into its Q1 2026 consolidation zone, the asset faces two possible scenarios – the best being a movement range between $60,000 and $72,000. On the other hand, the worst-case scenario would be price discovery at levels not seen since the maturation of the ETF spot market.
$BTC Facing the worst case scenario
Analysts estimate that the worst scenario will occur if $BTC exceeds $60,000 over an extended period. Bitcoin’s current movements are already confined to previous lows, due to catalysts such as ETF outflows and strategies. $BTC sales.
Other factors contributing to the current Bitcoin price trend are rising energy prices, stronger-than-expected labor market data, and tightening financial conditions from the Federal Reserve. However, the most important factor is the contraction in spot demand, as evidenced by the sharp reversal of the cumulative spot volume delta.
“The cumulative spot volume Delta has shifted to a clearly negative regime, touching depths reminiscent of the large liquidations seen in February. The data confirms that aggressive distribution, particularly by recent buyers, is currently the dominant force on exchange order books,” the analysts explained.
As with previous distribution phases, $BTC will only be able to return to an accumulation regime when sustained spot demand returns.
