Nearly 9 million BTC – that is, approximately 45-46% of the circulating supply – is currently held at a loss, a threshold that has historically preceded either a violent capitulation or the opening of an end-of-cycle accumulation window.
The last time this metric reached similar levels was in January 2023, amid the rubble of the FTX platform collapse, when a prolonged price consolidation followed rather than a rapid reversal.
Whether the current pattern will resolve the same way or end differently is the question every trader with a position in Bitcoin To answer it now.
- Reading the scale: Around 9 million BTC (45-46% of the supply) sits “underwater,” with short position holders holding $113.9 billion in unrealized losses.
- Historical context: Similar figures appeared in January 2023 (after FTX), mid-2022, and mid-2018 – each of which was preceded by additional declines of 25% or more before stabilizing.
- Current price: Bitcoin is trading between $65,200 and $66,689, approximately 47% below its October 2025 all-time high of over $126,000.
- Key levels: $63,000 is the immediate floor that cannot be exceeded; $69,000 is the realized price for one-month holders and represents the first significant resistance.
- What to watch out for: Total weekly ETF flows, whale portfolio activity and whether the Bitcoin Impact Index (currently 57.4) will accelerate deeper into the “high impact” zone.
When half the show is underwater… the story sends a clear message
The metric in question is the bid-to-loss ratio – where every coin whose last move on the network was at a higher price than the current price is considered “underwater”.
At current levels near $65,200, this category has reached almost 9 million. BTCwith peaks close to 10 million BTC recorded during recent local lows. Holders of long positions (coins that have not moved in more than six months) have 4.6 million BTC – 30% of their total holdings – in the red range, reflecting their worst loss profile since 2023.
The preceding cases tell a coherent story; In mid-2018, a similar losing bid reading was preceded by a further 50% collapse to the December low of $3,200.
In mid-2022, the same signal also emerged before falling towards the capitulation floor at $17,500. January 2023 was the exception that proved the rule: the signal appeared, but the forced sales largely exhausted themselves and the market recovered without a second wave of liquidations. The distinction that mattered in 2023 is the absence of active, meaningful selling pressure, and that distinction matters today as well.
“When a large portion of supply becomes unprofitable, markets enter either capitulation phases or late accumulation zones,” CryptoQuant analysts noted, defining the fundamental tension as a question of who dominates the selling side – the forced liquidators or the patient collectors. Currently, the data leans toward the first option.
Does the current situation of Bitcoin correspond to a floor price or a collapse?
Bitcoin ETFs (Spot ETFs) have seen net outflows of $3 billion since the start of the year, with the average investor entry price standing at $83,956, representing a book loss of 23% at current prices.
ETF participants alone sold more than 600 BTC per day last week. The risk aversion driving outflows is exacerbating an already tense situation on the network, with whales offloading more than 43,000 BTC last week.
The Bitcoin Impact Index reached 57.4, entering what Checkonchain classifies as a “high impact” zone historically associated with huge price movements in both directions.
The one-month holder category has a realized price close to $69,000; As the 1-3 month holder category approaches $90,000, both levels now act as resistance barriers rather than support.
Glassnode’s Sean Rose noted that “continuous losses on rebounds rather than a single selling spike” were the hallmark of this pullback, which gradually unfolded from the October high at $126,000 to $100,000, $90,000 and $80,000 without a single day of compensation via panic trading volumes.
Right now, it’s all about flows and how much pressure the market can absorb; Because if ETF demand becomes strong again, at around $500 million per week, and the whales continue to buy on the weakness, that will start to tighten supply again and give Bitcoin a real chance to get back to the $69,000 level and move up from there.
But the most realistic setup at the moment remains a squeeze, with the price stuck between $63,000 and $69,000 while the market works to absorb all the losing supply, no panic liquidation yet, just slow, choppy moves with no clear direction.
The danger zone lies at $63,000, as if this level is breached at the daily close, it would likely trigger another wave of liquidations, especially from short-term holders, and here the path to the downside could open quickly as increased supply is forced into the market.
Look at weekly ETF flow data as a leading indicator – it precedes a price trend BTC More reliable than any other measurement on the network in the last six months. Any week in which net inflows of more than $1 billion are recorded is the clearest early indication of a bullish scenario activating. Any acceleration in whale exit beyond the current pace of 43,000 BTC per week is the catalyst for a bearish scenario.
The six months of sustained bearish conditions that gave rise to this losing bid reading were not accompanied by a single shock, and that is precisely what makes the timing of resolution more difficult. The market might need a day of capitulation that it will never get.
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