Bitcoin is currently trading just below $103,000, and as investors weigh mixed signals in the markets, institutions continue to add to their Bitcoin holdings even as Strategic’s Bitcoin reserves fall below 60% of their total reserves.
However, Morgan Stanley advises caution, viewing this stage as a potential profit-taking season, as the strength of the United States Dollar (USD) continues to pressure markets for the foreseeable future and the formation of a symmetrical triangle in Bitcoin’s price movements indicates the possibility of breaching the $104,000 barrier and continuing higher.
Strategic’s share of institutional Bitcoin reserves declines as institutional adoption grows
Startegy is still the largest institution holding Bitcoin balances, but its share is declining as more companies seek to include currency balances as assets on their balance sheets. BitcoinTreasuries.NET data indicates that the company currently holds 640,808 Bitcoins, or approximately 60% of total Bitcoin reserves. Institutional, down from 75% recorded earlier in the year.
It’s worth noting here that the pace of corporate Bitcoin purchases slowed in October, with public and private companies combined adding just 14,447 Bitcoins to their holdings, the lowest monthly increase in 2025. While Coinbase purchased 2,772 Bitcoins, Japanese company Metaplanet topped the list. Bought an additional 5,268 BTC, highlighting continued institutional confidence in the long-term value of Bitcoin.
For its part, Fidelity Digital Assets reported that crypto treasury institutions continue to reduce the available supply of Bitcoin for trading, as the majority of them prefer to hold the currency without selling it.
In light of the slowdown in buying activity, the price of Bitcoin fell to $101,700 yesterday, suggesting the possibility that the price is going through a wave of stability that may decline for the foreseeable future, but the growing number of companies looking to include Bitcoin in their reserve assets supports the positive long-term outlook for the currency.
Morgan Stanley warns that Bitcoin is entering a wave of profit-taking
Denny Galindo, a strategic analyst at Morgan Stanley, reported that Bitcoin has entered the “fall season,” one of the phases of the four-year market cycle, where investors typically take profits in anticipation of possible waves of decline. Galindo compared Bitcoin’s price movement pattern to natural seasons, describing it as a rhythm of “three rising seasons and one falling season” because fall represents a time to “harvest” gains before winter.
Morgan Stanley says Bitcoin is in its “fall season.”
Strategist Denny Galindo described the current phase as the time to “harvest gains” ahead of a possible crypto winter, citing Bitcoin’s historical three-up-one-down cycle pattern. pic.twitter.com/LTkcFvxX85-Satoshi Club (@esatoshiclub) November 12, 2025
On the other hand, Morgan Stanley analyst Michael Cyprys noted that institutional demand remained strong despite the correction as Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (Bitcoin ETF) providers hold assets worth more than $137 billion.
After the bank’s cautious statements, the price of Bitcoin fell 1.5%, as some traders rushed to reap gains, but the continuation of exchange-traded funds (ETFs) to receive investments and the increase in institutional participation indicate continued long-term confidence in the price movement of Bitcoin in general.
The US dollar is gaining strength and the end of the US government shutdown improves market confidence.
The US Dollar Index (DXY) rose yesterday, Wednesday, as the market expects the extended government shutdown to end soon. The dollar index rose 0.19% to 99.63, supported by expectations for the upcoming release of delayed economic data – including major jobs reports – which could affect the Federal Reserve’s expected decision on interest rates.
Against this backdrop, the Japanese yen (JPY) fell to its lowest level since February, amid speculation that the new Japanese government may postpone interest rate hikes. At the same time, the British Pound (GBP) and Euro (EUR) currencies recorded declines against the Dollar, and investors favored the US currency ahead of the resumption of US economic activity and expected comments from the Federal Reserve.
Bitcoin Price Forecast: Price aims for $104,000 as triangle pattern narrows
Bitcoin price is currently hovering around $103,000, continuing to move within a tight trading range in the form of a symmetrical triangle on the 4-hour price movement chart. This pattern indicates that the market is going through a wave of anticipation in anticipation of a decisive breakthrough, with traders closely monitoring any breakdown of the pattern’s two boundaries.
The closest support is around $101,000 with a hammer candle forming, suggesting buyers are stepping in to take advantage of pullbacks. The 20-period exponential moving average (20-EMA) is just below its 50-period counterpart (50-EMA), which shows some short-term caution, but also hints at the possibility of a bullish crossover forming as momentum gains. For its part, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) reading of 48 remained below the average range, suggesting the possibility of increased volatility soon as traders prepare for the next move.
Breaking the $104,000 barrier could spur a move towards $107,500, with the possibility of continuing higher to $110,900, but if Bitcoin price falls below $99,200, this could be followed by a deeper correction towards $96,200 or $93,400, where historically higher support levels are available.
Currently, traders are waiting for confirmation. The direction of the breakout – whether breaking through the $104,000 barrier or breaking through the $99,000 level – is likely to determine the price direction for the remaining three months, and with reduced volatility levels and continued receipt of institutional investment, the current price stability could be the calm before the storm at the end of the year.
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The Bitcoin price forecast (Bitcoin-BTC): does the prelude to crossing the $104,000 barrier represent the calm before the start of the end-of-year storm? appeared first on Cryptonews Arabic.