Bitcoin’s well-known four-year cycle remains intact, but its drivers have changed. According to Markus Thielen, director of 10x Research, political events and liquidity now play a bigger role than halving events. Historically, cryptocurrency market peaks have begun to align more closely with US election cycles.
From halving to politics
Bitcoin’s four-year cycle was once primarily influenced by halving events. Halving reduces the rewards miners receive, which historically caused supply shocks and price increases. However, Thielen says the halving no longer drives market spikes as strongly as it once did.
Instead, political events, government policies, and liquidity conditions now shape Bitcoin’s price movement. Elections, fiscal stimulus, and interest rate changes affect investor sentiment and cash flow, which in turn influences cryptocurrency markets.
Why the US elections are important
Thielen notes that Bitcoin’s all-time highs often coincide with US election years. Investors pay close attention to fiscal and monetary policies during elections. Decisions on taxes, regulation and financial stimulus can directly affect market liquidity.
For example, periods of political uncertainty or large stimulus packages have historically resulted in higher trading volumes and Bitcoin price volatility. As a result, the US elections have become a key factor in the timing of market peaks.
Bitcoin liquidity and behavior
Liquidity now plays a critical role in Bitcoin’s four-year cycle. When cash flow in the system increases, investors typically allocate more funds to high-risk assets like cryptocurrencies. Conversely, tighter liquidity can slow market momentum.
Thielen emphasizes that this change reflects the maturation of Bitcoin. The market now reacts more to macroeconomic trends than to purely technical supply events. In other words, Bitcoin has gone from being an asset driven by scarcity to one influenced by the broader financial environment.
Understanding Bitcoin’s Four-Year Evolution Cycle
Investors should consider political calendars and liquidity conditions when analyzing Bitcoin cycles. While halving events still have symbolic and technical importance, broader market forces are increasingly important.
Thielen’s insights suggest that Bitcoin’s four-year cycle remains a useful guide, but now requires a more nuanced understanding of external factors. Traders and long-term investors can benefit from combining traditional cycle analysis with macroeconomic and political awareness.
As Bitcoin continues to integrate into mainstream finance, policy- and liquidity-driven cycles could become the new norm. Knowledge of these patterns can help investors anticipate market peaks more accurately than relying solely on halving events.
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