André Dragosch, Head of Research at Bitwise Europe, believes that the current Bitcoin price action may represent a familiar signal that we have observed in previous periods.
Key points:
- Andrej Dragosh, head of research at Bitwise Europe, says that the price of Bitcoin now exhibits a similar risk-reward pattern to that which occurred during the Covid pandemic.
- Dragosh confirms that the Bitcoin price has already started to reverse a state similar to an economic recession, after the market experienced heavy selling and intense liquidation.
- Dragosh expects a return to global growth supported by previous stimulus measures, which could push the price of Bitcoin higher later.
In a recent article on X (formerly Twitter), Dragosh explained that the market is starting to resemble the extreme risk-reward environment seen at the start of the Covid pandemic.
“The last time I saw such an unbalanced risk-reward ratio was during the Covid pandemic,” he wrote, citing the drop in Bitcoin’s price in March 2020, from around $8,000 to less than $5,000, as panic spread across global markets.
Bitwise Analyst: Bitcoin is now trading as if a global recession has already begun
Dragosh explains that the current similarity is not related to the health crisis (pandemic), but rather to how the price of Bitcoin is moving, as the currency is once again trading – in his opinion – as if a deep economic recession is underway.
He said the digital currency appeared to “reflect” what he described as the most pessimistic global growth outlook since 2022, a period dominated by the aggressive tightening of interest rates by the US Federal Reserve and the shocking collapse of the FTX platform. He added: “Bitcoin essentially reflects a stagnant growth environment and the market has already absorbed a lot of negative news.”.
Recent price action supports this view, as the general mood has weakened significantly, with the price of Bitcoin down more than 17% over the past 30 days, according to CoinMarketCap.
This is probably the most important work I’ve done. #Bitcoin & Macro so far.
This involves a lot of calculations and is somewhat complex – because financial markets are ultimately complex.
The question investors constantly face is:
“𝗪𝗵𝗮𝘁 𝗶𝘀 𝗽𝗿𝗶𝗰𝗲𝗱 𝗶𝗻… pic.twitter.com/TUaFGM5SAT—André Dragosch, Ph.D. (@Andre_Dragosch) November 28, 2025
After hitting an all-time high of $125,100 on October 5, the price of Bitcoin entered a prolonged decline following a $19 billion liquidation wave on October 10. This drop came a few days after Donald Trump announced large tariffs on Chinese imports.
The momentum deteriorated further in mid-November when Bitcoin’s price fell below $100,000, a level that many traders considered important psychological support. Although the price briefly fell below $90,000 on November 20, buyers quickly stepped in, raising hopes that the price had bottomed out.
Dragosh believes that this pessimism is perhaps misplaced, as he believes that global growth could improve once the impact of previous monetary stimulus begins to penetrate the financial system, a pattern similar to what happened during the recovery phase after the Covid-19 pandemic, as he said: “I honestly believe we are facing a very similar economic landscape to the one we experienced post-Covid. ».
Cathie Wood expects liquidity to return to crypto market
According to what has been circulating, Cathie Wood – CEO of ARK Invest – expects that the liquidity crisis hitting the crypto markets and the artificial intelligence sector will ease within a few weeks, driven by three changes in Federal Reserve policy that are expected to occur before the end of the year.
His company continues its massive purchases of crypto company stocks despite recent declines, as it pumped in more than $93 million in one day this week thanks to digital asset stocks that suffered a sharp decline. At the November ARK seminar, Wood highlighted three temporary restrictions on liquidity that she hopes to ease quickly due to Fed decisions and the resumption of government spending.
Wood expects the Fed to end its liquidity tightening policy at the Dec. 10 meeting, which would immediately relieve one of the biggest liquidity pressures, and that ending the government shutdown, which caused a large buildup of cash in the Treasury’s account, would return that money to the financial system.
The article Bitwise Analyst: Bitcoin (BTC) repeats the risk-return pattern that emerged during the Covid pandemic period appeared first on Cryptonews Arabic.
