Tyler and Cameron Winklevoss’ Gemini platform has announced plans to launch market forecasting contracts, according to a Bloomberg report published Tuesday, citing unnamed sources.
If it receives approval from US derivatives regulators, Gemini will compete directly with major players in the sector, including Kalshi and Polymarket. The sources indicated that the platform – led by the two billionaire brothers – was planning to launch these new products.As soon as possible“.
The wait for U.S. regulatory approval could take months or even years.
In May, Gemini filed a formal application with the U.S. Commodity and Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) to create a dedicated contracts marketplace and is actively considering listing forward-looking derivative contracts on its platform. However, approval procedures for creating a new platform can take months or even years, especially in light of the recent government shutdown, which could cause additional delays even if approved.
Gemini completed its initial public offering (IPO) in September after raising $425 million, marking one of the largest launches for a digital assets platform.
At that time, the New York-based company had hinted – in one of its regulatory filings – that it intended to launch contracts for events related to “economic, financial, political and sports forecasting”.
Increased demand for forecast markets
This step comes in light of the growing demand for forecast markets, which are witnessing significant growth in trading volume on platforms such as Kalshi and Polymarket. It is worth noting that Calci is already registered with the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), while Polymarket plans to reopen its US operations soon.
On this subject, an analyst from the investment bank Needham (Needham) spoke to Bloomberg, saying that Gemini’s plans would expand the scope of its current services, as forecast markets represent an “attractive opportunity” for growth. In a related development, other companies such as CME Group have made similar moves in this area, while the Coinbase platform announced during its latest earnings report its intention to expand into event-driven contracts as part of its strategy to become a “trading platform for everything.”
For its part, the Robinhood platform has confirmed that it is launching a predictions market that allows users to bet on the results of matches, and James Newman, CEO of institutional affairs at blockchain specialist in sports, Chiliz, declared – to our site Cryptonews – that this project is a new indicator of the growing expansion of the adoption of public interaction platforms based on blockchain.
Newman added:What we are witnessing today reflects a clear trend towards a growing interest among companies operating in the sector in the area of market forecasting. The real challenge is how to integrate these markets in a sustainable way, balancing innovation and responsibility.“.
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