Oil markets fell over the Memorial Day weekend as President Trump said a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz was “largely negotiated,” pulling Brent crude below $99 while bitcoin held near $77,000 as U.S. exchanges closed for the holiday.
Key points to remember:
- Brent crude fell below $99 on May 24, as Trump said a U.S.-Iran deal was “broadly negotiated,” aimed at reopening the Strait of Hormuz.
- JPMorgan forecasts Brent to average $60 in the long term if tensions ease, with WTI potentially slipping into the $80s if supply is confirmed restored.
- Bitcoin held nearly $77,000 over the Memorial Day weekend as crypto markets remain open while the NYSE, CME, and bond markets will be closed on May 25.
Trump signals US-Iran deal pushes Brent crude below $99 as WTI eyes $80 price
Brent crude fell about 4.87% in weekend CFD trading to around $98.87, extending the decline from Friday’s settlement near $103. The West Texas Intermediate (WTI) July 2026 contract closed Friday at $97.00, up 0.67% on the session, although weekend guidance points to a decline. Earlier in May, Brent traded above $110 on supply fears linked to the US-Iran conflict, before falling sharply each time negotiations advanced.
The Strait of Hormuz remains the pivot point. The waterway carries about 20% of the world’s oil trade, and Iranian restrictions along with U.S. naval actions have cut more than 10 barrels a day to record levels of disruption since fighting escalated in late February. Each round of ceasefire signals caused prices to fall by double digits in a single session.
Trump’s statements over the weekend added weight to the bearish sentiment. The president noted that a deal was close, with terms expected to include a 60-day ceasefire extension, possible sanctions relief and a postponement of nuclear negotiations. Iran has submitted revised proposals and regional players, including Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, are said to be involved in the process. Points of friction remain around Iranian control of the strait, uranium stockpiles and concerns raised by Israel.
Traders expect a confirmed deal to propel WTI towards $80. Infrastructure repairs and shipping logistics could delay full normalization of supply by weeks or months, but the market is already pricing in the restoration of flows. If negotiations fail, the risk premium returns quickly.
The futures curve reflects the shared outlook. Brent contracts for August traded near $99.50, September near $96.00, with further months of declines as markets assess possible normalization. JPMorgan analysts forecast Brent averaging $60 if geopolitical tensions ease and expected surpluses materialize later in 2026. Other forecasters believe second-quarter averages will be closer to $90 to $100, given the period of disruption.
Pakistan-brokered ceasefire talks in early spring triggered some of the biggest price declines of the year. The same pattern repeats itself. Optimism in transactions compresses the risk premium; Any breakdown restores it. Traders heading into Tuesday’s session are awaiting formal confirmation.
Bitcoin held between $76,700 and $77,200 throughout the weekend, with no significant breakouts in either direction. Crypto markets operate 24 hours a day and remain the only major financial market active during the American holidays. Ethereum and altcoins have moved in lockstep with Bitcoin, with low overall volume and stable momentum. At least for now, at 8:30 p.m. ET Sunday night.
US stock markets, bond markets and CME energy futures are operating under holiday restrictions tomorrow, May 25. Normal trading resumes on Tuesday May 26. This session will absorb any agreement developments that emerge over the long weekend. In the meantime, anything could happen.
Oil’s near-term direction remains determined by events. A confirmed reopening of Hormuz quickly disrupts the supply situation. Traders who pushed prices above $110 in early May have already seen the effect of optimism on downside trading.
Bitcoin’s consolidation near $77,000 has held despite a period of macro and geopolitical noise. Whether that changes Tuesday depends largely on what happens in a strait 7,000 miles away. As usual, crypto may feel it first.
