Bitcoin has lost more than half its value since its October 2025 peak, falling to around $63,000 at press time. Currently, it sits in a tight range between $58,000 and $63,000.
The decline primarily stems from rising geopolitical tensions that formed after the peak – the US-China tariff war and unresolved conflict in West Asia – which pulled capital out of Bitcoin.
Sentiment has since calmed on the geopolitical front, but the actions of major holders cast doubt on the possibility of a sustainable rally. Michael Saylor’s strategy recently sold $216 worth of Bitcoin to fund a million dividend payment, reinforcing this uncertainty. On-chain data offers a cleaner answer.
Apparent Bitcoin Demand Signals Quiet Accumulation
Despite the outflows, Bitcoin’s apparent demand on a 30-day basis indicates a silent and growing accumulation of the asset.
Since June 3, buyers have scooped up approximately 200,000 Bitcoins, pushing apparent demand from -275,000 to -75,000 Bitcoins. The metric measures the gap between newly issued Bitcoin and the supply that has remained inactive.
The rise reflects some degree of accumulation, although it does not confirm a bull market.
Apparent demand is still in negative territory on the chart. A significant rise seems unlikely until the metric turns positive, particularly as long as the upward push toward the positive end remains weak. For now, the trend calls for caution rather than a bullish reading, and the market has yet to confirm otherwise.
The structure suggests limited disadvantages
Structurally, the royal cryptocurrency is showing signs that a further decline from this level is less likely.
Bitcoin has found a base at the lower band (green line) of the Bollinger Bands, a level that has often played a vital supporting role once the price trades there for a while.
Bollinger Bands have repeatedly signaled rebound points on the chart. Each of the last five instances, circled in red, generally carried the price up to the upper blue or red line, levels that currently sit at $69,928 and $82,544.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator, on the other hand, suggests that a rally may not materialize anytime soon, with Bitcoin more likely to decline slightly or consolidate further within its current range.
The blue MACD line crossing the orange line, while maintaining a narrow gap, implies that Bitcoin continues to follow the current trend, between $58,000 and $63,000, before a rise materializes. It also suggests that the chances of an extreme fall remain slim.
Bitcoin Season Index and FX Reserves Remain Calm
The market has not entered a Bitcoin season, the euphoric period where the asset posts new local highs and potentially tests an all-time high.
The index tracking this figure is currently 52, providing modest support for the idea that some altcoins are attracting new capital flows.
As it stands, Bitcoin is likely to face lighter selling pressure, given the overall decline in supply held in foreign exchange reserves. This availability increased from 2.715 million Bitcoins to around 2.707 million on the chart.
For now, capital movements appear to be stabilizing sentiment, and Bitcoin appears poised to remain calm as the gradual downtrend continues.
Final summary
- Bitcoin remains range-bound, with on-chain data indicating accumulation but not a confirmed bullish reversal.
- Apparent demand is improving as buyers accumulate BTC, although the metric remains negative, warranting caution.