ARK Invest said that even though Bitcoin lost around 14% of its value in the second quarter of 2026, on-chain data signals the end of selling pressure. The company views the record amount of Bitcoin held by long-term investors as an important indicator pointing to a potential market bottom.
According to ARK Invest’s Q2 Bitcoin report, $BTC closed in June at around $58,544. During this period, Bitcoin price fell below the investor’s short-term realization price of around $70,327, the 200-day moving average of $75,371, and the on-chain average of around $76,660.
The report states that Bitcoin remaining below the three key moving averages is historically linked to bearish market conditions. It therefore appears that the technical outlook has not yet improved significantly.
However, on-chain indicators suggest that the sell-off may be nearing its final stages. For the first time in this cycle, Bitcoin’s supply percentage at a loss exceeded the percentage in profit, reaching around 54%. The percentage of profitable Bitcoin, meanwhile, fell to 46%.
ARK Invest noted that the supply of stocks in losses outpacing the supply of stocks in profits has typically been seen in past market cycles near the lowest levels. The fact that the rate of realized losses briefly exceeded the rate of realized profits and the ratio fell to 0.82 was also seen as a sign of exhaustion of selling pressure.
Another key finding from the report is the amount of Bitcoin held by long-term investors. Bitcoin supply held by long-term investors increased by approximately 313,000 $BTC in the second quarter, reaching an all-time high of 14.85 million $BTC.
According to ARK Invest, long-term investors with high conviction levels continued to accumulate market-distributed Bitcoin during the price decline. The firm noted that increased supply from long-term investors during the price decline was a positive divergence in terms of the market’s fundamental outlook.
However, the report notes that Bitcoin has not yet returned to its historically low on-chain cost levels. He said that the current price of Bitcoin is around $53,000, while its price for investors is around $49,000.
ARK Invest said the downside risks have not completely disappeared as Bitcoin has yet to test this cost range between $49,000 and $53,000. According to the company, the mean reversion process, which accompanied the decline of the global market in the past, has not yet taken place.
The report also states that outflows from US-traded spot Bitcoin ETFs have increased pressure on the market. Funds saw net outflows for seven straight weeks toward the end of the quarter, losing about 71,000 $BTC in assets throughout the second quarter.
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During the worst week at the end of June, around 30,000 $BTC were removed from ETFs. ARK Invest said the weakening of ETF spot demand indicates that one of the most important sources of marginal demand supporting the price of Bitcoin has lost strength.
Signs of stress have also been observed in the funding conditions of Bitcoin treasury companies. Strategy’s STRC preferred stock, named “Stretch,” rose from its par value of $100 to $74.57 during the quarter. STRC ended the second quarter at around $84.86.
ARK Invest said STRC trading below its par value could indicate an increase in the cost of capital for leveraged companies building Bitcoin treasuries.
The base rate of three-month Bitcoin futures contracts remained low but positive, averaging 2.3% throughout the quarter. The fact that the rate at times moved in the opposite direction indicates that demand for leveraged long positions and speculative appetite were limited.
ARK Invest assessed technical and on-chain indicators as well as the macroeconomic environment. The report claims that technology-driven productivity increases inflationary pressures.
It was reported that although unit labor costs increased by 0.5 percent, productivity increased by 2.8 percent and core consumption inflation remained around 2.9 percent despite the rise in oil prices.
The company also argued that the flattening of the yield curve reflected deflationary trends rather than a recession. He said artificial intelligence, infrastructure energy, deregulation and regulation enable investment spending directly supported by capital expenditure.
According to ARK Invest, new orders for core capital goods reaching a record high and surpassing a 25-year resistance level indicate the formation of a sustained growth cycle driven by technology and energy investments.
*This does not constitute investment advice.