In its report published in mid-March 2026, cryptocurrency management company VanEck revealed that the market had moved to a distinctly defensive position.
According to the report, investor demand for hedging against downside risks has reached record levels, while indicators reflecting bearish expectations in the options market have seen a significant increase.
In the Bitcoin options market, the ratio of open put/call positions reached 0.84, reaching its highest level since June 2021. Over the past 30 days, premiums paid by investors to hedge millions against downsides reached around $685, while call option premiums, representing bullish expectations, fell 12% to $562 million. This indicates a growing trend of risk aversion among market participants.
During the same period, a significant decrease in volatility and leverage was observed. Bitcoin’s realized volatility fell from around 80 to 50, while futures funding rates fell from 4.1% to 2.7%. This indicates that speculative activity has decreased in the market following the sharp drop in prices and that investors have rebalanced their positions more cautiously.
According to VanEck’s analysis, the defensive structure of the options market is reflected not only on the demand side, but also on the cost side. The implied volatility of put options, at approximately 66%, far exceeded both realized and call volatility. This difference reveals that investors are actively seeking to protect themselves against downside risks.
However, historical data highlights a remarkable trend. Similar levels of high “option bias” (put options being more expensive than call options) have often historically been precursors to a strong price rally. Based on data from the last six years, Bitcoin generated average returns of 13% over 90 days and 133% over 360 days after these periods.
On the other hand, on-chain data and miner behavior also confirm market stagnation. While trading volume decreased by 31% and transaction fees by 27%, a slowdown in the pace of selling by long-term investors was observed. It has been noted that miners continue to sell the majority of the Bitcoin they produce.
*This does not constitute investment advice.