Hello, Asia. Here’s what’s making news on the markets:
Welcome to Asia Morning Briefing, a daily summary of the top news stories during U.S. business hours and insight into market movements and analysis. For a detailed overview of US markets, see Crypto Daybook Americas from CoinDesk.
Forecast markets are skeptical that political pressure in Washington will result in the early removal of Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, even after federal prosecutors opened a criminal investigation into the $2.5 billion renovation of the Fed’s headquarters.
On Polymarket, early traders rated just an 8% chance that Powell would step down as Fed chair by March 31, which remained largely unchanged despite Powell’s accusations that the administration was using the investigation as a pretext to pressure monetary policy.
A separate contract from Polymarket assigns a 67% probability that Powell will leave the Fed Board by the end of May, showing that even though he will leave office at the end of his term, his influence will likely still be felt on the Board.
U.S. Regulated Market Forecast Kalshi tells a similar story. Contracts determining whether Powell will step down as chairman before May 2026 have climbed to around 19%, up sharply on the day, but still implying that markets view impeachment as an unlikely outcome rather than a base case scenario.
Broader markets echo this restraint. Cryptocurrency prices remained largely unchanged, with bitcoin hovering around $91,400 and ether above $3,100, according to CoinDesk market data, suggesting traders are not repositioning in anticipation of imminent changes in U.S. monetary policy.
Traditional safe havens, however, moved more decisively, with gold climbing above $4,580 an ounce and silver gaining more than 4.5%. On one hand, metals market action could simply be a continued trend of being more volatile than crypto, or it could be a break from prediction markets as traders prepare for what is expected to be another era of accommodative monetary policy under a new Fed chair.
When the new Fed chairman is announced, prediction market traders are betting on Kevin Warsh, who has a 43% chance of taking the job according to a Polymarket contract.
In Wall Street Journal op-eds, Warsh argued that inflation was driven not by wars or tariffs but by excessive government spending and an overwhelmed central bank, calling for a smaller, less political Fed, a sharply reduced balance sheet, and a return to strict price stability as the primary test of central bank independence.
Market movement
BTC: Bitcoin traded around $91,400, indicating that crypto markets are looking largely beyond the political drama around the Federal Reserve for now.
ETFs: Ethereum held near $3,125 after retreating from its 100-day moving average, with momentum indicators still constructive, suggesting that ETH can resume its near-term rally alongside Bitcoin and XRP if key support levels continue to hold.
Gold: Gold rose more than 1% to around $4,573, extending its rally after mixed U.S. jobs data bolstered expectations for Fed rate cuts and highlighted a macroeconomic backdrop of slowing growth, persistent inflation and a weaker dollar.
Nikkei 225: Japan’s Nikkei 225 was closed for a public holiday, leaving local investors on the sidelines even as markets across the Asia-Pacific region followed Wall Street’s record gains.
Elsewhere in crypto
- Vitalik Buterin says decentralized stablecoins still face three unresolved problems (The Block)
- Tennessee Orders Kalshi, Polymarket and Crypto.com to End Sports Betting Contracts (CoinDesk)
