Market analyst Mike McGlone, in his latest assessment of global markets, warned that a potential war between the United States and Iran could trigger the next American recession. According to McGlone, increasing geopolitical tensions could put significant pressure on already fragile financial markets.
The analyst also highlighted certain market levels where the current scenario could be uncovered. According to him, developments such as Bitcoin staying above $74,000, copper rising to $6, silver to $100, the S&P 500 index surpassing 7,000 points and the Dow Jones reaching the 50,000 level could indicate a different macroeconomic situation. He said, however, that a rise in U.S. Treasury yields above 5% could create a “lose-lose” scenario.
According to McGlone, the decline of the cryptocurrency market could be one of the first signs of a broader deflationary process that could emerge in the post-inflationary period. The analyst argued that crypto assets have risen very quickly in the past, creating oversupply in the market, and that is the reason for the pullbacks.
Energy markets also play an important role in McGlone’s analysis. According to the analyst, sudden rises in oil prices can often trigger a market overhang by liquidating short positions, increasing the risk of a global recession. McGlone notes that U.S. natural gas prices could be a key indicator for the oil market in 2026, pointing out that natural gas futures, which rose nearly 100% in January, have fallen about 15% year to date.
McGlone also said the extreme volatility in precious metals and energy markets could eventually be reflected in stock markets. According to the analyst, the asset class that could generate the highest returns for investors in 2026 could be US government bonds. McGlone, recalling that gold performed well in 2025 and Bitcoin in 2024, suggested that bonds could perform similarly in 2026.
*This does not constitute investment advice.