Bitcoin is on the defensive as April ends, although seasonal trends suggest any pullback could prove short-lived, potentially paving the way for further upside in the coming weeks.
Data going back to 2013 shows that May tends to be a bull month for the largest cryptocurrency, with gains in seven of the last 13 years. Although the average return of around 8% is less impressive than that of stronger months like October and November, it still indicates a positive bias.
Following April’s roughly 10% gain, the seasonal trend suggests the broader uptrend may remain intact. The outlook is supported by similar bullish seasonality in the S&P 500, which is already hovering near record highs.
Consecutive monthly net flows into U.S.-listed spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) indicate strong institutional demand and support the bullish narrative. These ETFs brought in more than $1.8 billion this month, following $1.32 billion in March.
This is an excerpt from the CoinDesk “Daybook” newsletter. Register here, if you haven’t already.
Traders should, however, keep an eye on bond markets, where rising yields are a drag on risky assets.
“Bitcoin’s inability to hold above $78,000 and subsequent drift toward $75,000 suggests the market is digesting the ‘higher for longer’ signal,” Jake Kennis, research analyst at Nansen, said in an email. “In the absence of a liquidity catalyst, it appears range-bound rather than preparing for a breakout, with macro headwinds limiting near-term upside despite overall flat 14-day performance (+0.7%).”
The other risk is a global economic crisis. Several observers, including energy analyst Anas Alhajji, have warned that the negative impact of the war in Iran and disruption in the energy market could dent the global economy in May.
Markus Thielen, the founder of 10X Research, suggested as much in a report to clients on Thursday.
“May marks the end of the gap and the real economy begins to pay the bill,” he said. Stay vigilant!
Read more: For analysis of current altcoin and derivatives activity, see Crypto Markets Today. For a full list of this week’s events, check out CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”
What is the trend
- Ouch. The 30-year U.S. Treasury yield just hit 5% and bitcoin could pay the price (CoinDesk): Several factors, including hawkish dissent within the Federal Reserve, rising oil prices and rising long-term inflation expectations are pushing bond yields higher.
- Jack Mallers’ Twenty One Capital Surges After Majority Holder Tether Proposes Three-Way Merger (CoinDesk): Tether Investments has proposed merging Twenty One Capital (XXI) with Strike, a Bitcoin financial services platform, and Bitcoin miner Elektron Energy. XXI shares rose nearly 8% in after-hours trading Wednesday.
- Brent pares gains after hitting 4-year high as report fuels concerns over US military action against Iran (CNBC): Brent crude futures hit a war high of $126 a barrel, before paring gains to $121.56 a barrel, up 3% for the session, while US West Texas Intermediate added 1.5% to $108.44.
- Eurozone inflation hits 3% as oil prices rise and economic growth slows (euronews): Annual inflation in the 21 countries that use the euro rose to 3.0% from 2.6% in March, driven by an 11% increase in energy prices.
Signal of the day
The chart shows Bitcoin price fluctuations in candlestick form during 2026 and 2021-22. The charts show two lines: the red one represents the 50-day average price and the white one shows the 100-day average price.
Right now, the 50-day average looks poised to surpass the 100-day average. Chart analysts are calling this a bullish crossover, a signal that short-term momentum is strengthening relative to the medium-term trend and could indicate further upside if sustained.
Thus, the impending crossover suggests more BTC price gains to come. That said, the indicator has a mixed record, particularly during bear markets. For example, a similar bullish crossover occurred in March 2022, as shown in the chart on the right. But that ended up trapping the bulls on the wrong side of the market, as prices plunged deeper in the following weeks.
