Benjamin Cowen, a leading cryptocurrency market analyst, assessed the current state of Bitcoin and bear market psychology in his new analysis. Speaking through historical data and cycles, Cowen warned investors against misleading price increases.
Cowen, commenting at a time when Bitcoin was trading just above the $78,000 level, argued that bear markets are extremely difficult to deal with psychologically.
The analyst said, “Bear markets always deceive both bulls and bears,” adding that temporary and misleading rallies seen during these periods are inherent to the market.
Cowen countered the prevailing market sentiment that “This time it’s different, we’ve never seen a bear market run this long,” by citing examples of past cycles. He recalled that during the bear markets of 2014, 2018 and 2022, it took between 15 and 25 weeks to reach a new low, while only 14 weeks have passed in the current situation.
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Cowen said that June has always been an important turning point (local low or peak) for Bitcoin, and predicted that the main market trend could further decline around October or the fourth quarter of the year.
The analyst noted that Bitcoin is currently struggling to break above the 200-day moving average, a critical threshold it struggles to surpass in bear markets, and that even a potential rise to $85,000 based on historical resistance levels would not break the main downtrend.
Referring to Bitcoin’s performance compared to other assets, Cowen said: “Bitcoin supporters may be laughing at gold, but Bitcoin has lost 58% of its value relative to gold since December 2024.”
He claimed that gold would continue its rise towards the end of the year, while Bitcoin could lose another 45% of its value compared to gold.
Cowen noted that the current cycle of midterm elections in the United States bears similarities to that of 2018 and that a potential second macroeconomic pullback in the S&P 500 index could trigger a new wave of decline in Bitcoin. He added that based on realized fair value and balanced price models, it would not be surprising if Bitcoin fell to the $40,000 level.
*This does not constitute investment advice.