Crypto analyst Ali Martinez, in his analysis of the current Bitcoin market cycle, pointed out a striking temporal similarity with past cycles.
According to Martinez, major Bitcoin market cycles follow a fairly consistent pace in terms of correction duration and depth.
According to the analyst, historical data shows that it takes on average around 1,064 days for Bitcoin to peak from a low point, while the time it takes to fall to the next low after that high is on average 364 days. Martinez said this pattern has repeated in three main cycles so far and argued that the current cycle follows the same structure.
During the first cycle, Bitcoin reached its peak in December 2017 after its January 2015 low in exactly 1,064 days. The ensuing bear market lasted 364 days, with a new low in December 2018. During the second cycle, it took another 1,064 days to reach its peak in November 2021 compared to the low in December 2018. After this peak, a 364-day correction period saw Bitcoin reach a low of around $15,500 in November 2022.
Martinez noted that a similar trend is emerging in the current cycle. According to him, Bitcoin reached its low in November 2022 and its peak of around $126,200 in October 2025, again in 1,064 days. Based on this data, the analyst said that Bitcoin is currently in a 364-day correction window, and this process portends a possible market bottom around October 2026. He argued that this date corresponds to approximately 288 days from today.
On the other hand, Martinez also called attention to price pullbacks during previous bear markets. Recalling that the 2017-2018 bear market saw a decline of 84% and the 2021-2022 bear market saw a decline of 77%, the analyst said the average of these two periods indicates a drawdown of around 80%. He suggested that if this scenario repeats itself, the next market low could be around $37,500.
*This does not constitute investment advice.