Bitcoin is wrapping itself in a tightening range as volatility falls to all-time lows, raising the risk of a decisive revaluation that could shape crypto markets in 2026, according to Bloomberg Intelligence strategist Mike McGlone.
Bitcoin Volatility Compression Raises the Stakes for 2026
On January 10, Mike McGlone, senior commodities strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence, shared on social media platform
He said:
Bitcoin’s $84,000 to $94,000 cage since November suggests an imminent breakout of the tip of the risk asset iceberg. Which direction could define 2026, and I see risks tilted to the downside.
The attached image shows BTC repeatedly stagnating around its 100-week moving average, failing to establish sustained bullish momentum. The chart also shows that 30-day volatility is compressing toward multi-year lows, a condition historically associated with strong revaluation rather than prolonged stability. The visual markers refer to previous cycles, including 2022, where a similar compression in volatility preceded larger declines in crypto markets.
“Risks Look Downside for Bitcoin” Chart Shared by Bloomberg Strategist Mike McGlone
Learn more: Bloomberg’s Mike McGlone warns of ‘hurricane’ in markets in 2026
McGlone presented this setup as a continuation of the “peak bubble” warnings he has been issuing throughout 2025, even as bitcoin surged to around $126,000 in October and market sentiment turned euphoric. As 2026 begins, his analysis shifts toward what he calls the “Great Reversion,” a phase in which stressed assets return toward long-term equilibrium.
His post X continues:
Bitcoin’s chart oscillating on its 100-week moving average for nearly two months, alongside 30-day volatility falling to multi-year lows, highlights my main theme for 2026: a volatility bull market.
As part of this, he maintains that BTC’s most likely trajectory is toward a “sustainable pivot” of $50,000, while acknowledging tail risk of a downside towards $10,000 if a recession triggers a 2008-style liquidity flight. He also highlighted the growing divergence between gold and bitcoin, viewing gold’s rise in early 2026 as a preemptive warning that deflationary forces are putting pressure on high beta assets such as crypto.
FAQs 🧭
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What does Mike McGlone report about the current price structure of Bitcoin?
McGlone warns that BTC’s prolonged consolidation between $84,000 and $94,000 with compressed volatility suggests an imminent breakout with downside risks dominating for long-term investors. -
Why does the removal of Bitcoin volatility concern investors?
Historically, Bitcoin’s low volatility over several years has been preceded by abrupt revaluation events, often resulting in significant declines rather than lasting stability. -
What downside targets does Bloomberg Intelligence see for Bitcoin in 2026?
McGlone identifies $50,000 as a likely long-term equilibrium level for bitcoin, with an extreme recession scenario that could push prices towards $10,000. -
How does gold’s performance factor into Bitcoin’s bearish outlook?
The growing divergence as gold rises while BTC stagnates is seen as a deflationary warning signal, indicating pressure on high-risk assets like crypto.