Ripple (XRP) is trading at $1.34 on April 7, with a 2.2% increase due to risk appetite flows following the ceasefire announcement. However, the price level that dominates the scene in April will not only be determined by macroeconomic sentiment, but will be decided in the halls of the United States Senate Banking Committee.
The CLARITY Act, which would codify the classification of XRP as a digital commodity under the jurisdiction of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and strip the SEC of its primary supervisory authority, aims to reach the committee review phase in the second half of April.
Senator Bernie Moreno has publicly stated that if the bill does not reach the full Senate by May, midterm election dynamics would push it off the calendar for the remainder of 2026. This makes the next three weeks the most critical legislative window XRP has faced this year.
- Price level: XRP is trading at $1.34 as of April 6, down 63% from its July 2025 high of $3.65, with Q1 2026 recording its worst quarterly performance in eight years.
- Legislative time: Senate Banking Committee review scheduled for late April; Senator Moreno warned that failure to move forward by May would end hopes for the 2026 law.
- Ascension Catalyst: The Banking Commission’s approval could open the door to expected inflows of $4 billion to $8 billion into XRP ETFs, according to Standard Chartered’s Jeffrey Kendrick, with a price target of over $1.60.
- Landing : A fall after May, coinciding with Bitcoin surpassing the $60,000 level, puts XRP at risk of sliding towards $0.82, according to Wall St 24/7 analysis.
- Revision possibilities: Kalshi estimated the chances of success in 2026 at around 69% on March 20; While Polymarket currently sits between 63-66%, reflecting the remaining uncertainty around DeFi arrangements and timing.
What does the CLARITY Act really offer? Why is April the only window?
The CLARITY Act (HR 3633) passed the House by a bipartisan vote of 294-134 on July 17, 2025, tasking the CFTC with primary oversight of digital products while limiting the SEC’s jurisdiction over assets under the new framework.
The Senate Agriculture Committee advanced its version of the bill on January 29, 2026, but the Banking Committee – chaired by Tim Scott – has yet to begin review, due to unresolved disagreements over provisions regulating decentralized finance (DeFi) and dealing with asset tokenization that are delaying the timeline.
The Senate is scheduled to return from its Easter recess on April 13, and Scott’s committee has a target window for review in the last two weeks of the month.
The dispute over stablecoin returns that disrupted previous negotiations appears to be nearing resolution; Senator Tillis and Senator Alsobrooks reached a tentative agreement on March 20 that prohibits negative returns on stablecoin balances, but allows activity-based rewards related to payments and platform usage.
Senator Cynthia Lummis confirmed at the Chamber of Digital Commerce’s Blockchain Summit that provisions for decentralized finance (DeFi) have been finalized, planning for a committee review in late April followed by a Senate vote in mid-2026.
Looking at the actual calculations of the schedule, Galaxy Research’s Alex Thorn noted that with only 18 business weeks remaining before the October 5 midterm recess, each week of delay shortens the time frame for review of the bill to the point that passage in 2026 becomes structurally unlikely without approval from the Banking Committee by the end of April.
Although the SEC and CFTC jointly classified XRP as a digital commodity on March 17, this designation is an interpretive release and not law.
Any future administration can reverse this decision, and banks and large asset managers will not commit huge amounts of capital based solely on an administrative decision. The CLARITY Act would make commodity classification permanent federal law, and this distinction is the main driver of the bullish scenario.
Possibility that XRP reaches $1.60 or more in the event of legislative clarity
Ripple’s (XRP) entire position is based on one thing, the CLARITY Act; Because if it passes the Banking Commission at the end of April, it will be the key that draws real institutional money from behind the scenes to the ground, not just in words but in actual flows. This is where expectations such as ETF inflows ranging from $4-8 billion start to gain importance, especially as we have already seen strong demand even without full legal clarity, which could push the price past $1.60 and aim for higher levels.
The key detail that many overlook is that it’s not just about regulatory hype, it’s about certainty; Currently, institutions can monitor XRP but cannot fully engage with it. For this reason, even the recent regulatory classification has not moved things forward structurally; This helps sentiment but doesn’t free up capital, whereas a law like CLARITY completely changes the rules and makes it easier to deploy liquidity.
If this approval is delayed beyond May, the whole story will quickly weaken; Because without it, XRP will revert to simply following the movement of Bitcoin. While Bitcoin is already moving sideways, this means there is no strong independent movement, and if macroeconomic pressures return, the door to a decline will quickly open.
The change in timeline on the part of Ripple itself is also an indicator, as expectations are actually being pushed back, which is usually a sign that things behind the scenes are not as smooth as they appear publicly.
So, everything now comes down to focusing on the end of April window; If the committee moves, momentum will accelerate, but if it falters, the landscape will shift from setting up a catalyst-driven breakout to simple sideways trading as media momentum fades.
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