Weiss Crypto says Bitcoin could be approaching one of its strongest buying opportunities in years, with senior analyst Juan M. Villaverde saying an upcoming pullback could mark final confirmation that the market’s bear phase is over.
In an article on X, Weiss Crypto said its latest cycle analysis shows “exactly how $BTC could fall before this bear market ends” and why this could be “great news going forward.” These comments accompany a new video analysis from Villaverde, who says several of his macroeconomic, liquidity and cycle models are again pointing in the same direction: a short-term decline, but within a broader constructive framework.
Bitcoin pullback seen as bullish confirmation
Villaverde said Bitcoin has largely continued to trade in line with macro signals, despite temporary deviations related to geopolitical and legislative events. He pointed to the February low his framework had been tracking since last year, followed by a recovery he called weaker than expected.
“We’ve been seeing this February low since last year. We’ve been talking about a fourth-quarter correction since the fourth quarter of last year. We were expecting a selloff in February,” Villaverde said. He added that he started buying Bitcoin in late January because the market was already close to the expected cycle window.
The ensuing rally, however, did not extend as far as he had expected. Villaverde said liquidity and bond market signals suggested Bitcoin could reach $90,000 or $100,000, but the market was unsettled by geopolitical risk, particularly the escalation around Iran and the Strait of Hormuz. He said this created a two-week deviation from the macroeconomic trajectory rather than a structural break in the model.
“Bitcoin has moved alongside the macro,” he said, filtering through this period. He argued that liquidity reached around the same time as Bitcoin and then began to decline, while bond market signals also pointed to a slowdown.
Villaverde said he has been watching to see whether enthusiasm around the Clarity Act for a vote in the Senate could outweigh bearish signals in the near term. “This is Bitcoin’s only chance to ignore the bearish liquidity outlook and bearish planetary patterns,” he said. But after that catalyst failed to generate a decisive breakout, he said the weight of evidence remains tilted to the downside.
Analyst says he’s not calling for $50,000 worth of Bitcoin
The central point of the analysis was not that Bitcoin is entering a deeper bear market. Villaverde emphasized that his framework points to correction within a changed regime, not collapse.
“I just want to zoom out and be very clear. I’m not predicting $50,000. I’m not even saying it will go below $70,000. I’m not even sure it will go below $70,000,” he said. “I think if you sell short, that’s not really what my framework suggests. My framework suggests that it’s the correction that confirms that the bear market is over.”
This distinction is key to Weiss Crypto’s thesis. Villaverde said the bond market model, which he described as 13 months out, still implies the February low should not be retested. Liquidity, which he expects to last for about 12 weeks, has also started to follow this broader path, forming a June-July low and moving toward a potential rally.
“If these two don’t make new lows, I expect Bitcoin won’t make new lows,” he said.
In terms of downsides, Villaverde said a move towards $60,000 remains possible within the Hurst cycle without invalidating the bullish structure. Nonetheless, he described the $65,000-$66,000 zone as more likely, as it would maintain a higher low and maintain the correctly translated 320-day cycle, a structure described as bullish.
Rather than spot selling or shorting Bitcoin, Villaverde said he approaches the setup via options. With Bitcoin near $80,000, he said he was selling calls, while a sell would lead him to start selling puts around $70,000, $65,000 or $60,000.
According to Villaverde, the most important implication is that Bitcoin could form an unusually shallow bear market structure, shaped by institutional demand. “If we see this, it would be the most shallow bear market in crypto history,” he said, adding that it may have ended with a single low that was not retested.
At the time of going to press, $BTC Was trading at $72,043.