The S&P 500 index broke records, reaching 7,534 points on Memorial Day, driven by the collapse in oil prices amid signs of calm in the Middle East. An initial framework agreement between the Trump administration and Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz saw Brent crude fall below $100 a barrel, reducing the geopolitical risk premium that pushed institutional investors into defensive positions for weeks.
Monday, public holiday, pre-market and yet $500 SP and $NQ are well above the last ATH.
$SP500 has a total of 9 weekly green bars, which is absolutely insane. pic.twitter.com/mFnqRYis4y– Dren (@dren_fazliu) May 25, 2026
If BTC ETF spot flows have not turned positive after a bloody week, the question remains: Can Bitcoin take advantage of this situation? Or has the downtrend not yet bottomed out?
Possible return of the correlation between Bitcoin and the S&P 500
Bitcoin’s correlation with the S&P 500 is not just a passing statistic; During previous episodes of risk appetite in stocks, Bitcoin’s 90-day correlation with the index has repeatedly increased to the 0.3 to 0.5 range, compared to readings near zero or negative during periods of risk aversion.
UBS expected the S&P 500 index to reach 7,500 points by the end of 2026, based on profit growth of around 14%, with artificial intelligence and technology contributing around half of that expansion. When the index reaches this target prematurely, it compresses the expected timeline for all associated risk assets.
Technically, Bitcoin’s price structure shows a clear retracement of the 200-day exponential moving average (200-day EMA), with horizontal resistance positioned near its previous high. The technical setup appears clear after hitting what looks like a local bottom, but the challenge now lies in how long macroeconomic momentum will be sustained enough to break through these levels.
The key variable to watch remains institutional demand for infrastructure, particularly whether the Nasdaq options market and spot ETFs will continue to absorb supply at current levels, or begin to show exit pressures ahead of the next macroeconomic data release.
Collapse in the price of oil: the deflationary shock awaiting crypto
Brent crude falling below $100 a barrel isn’t just a catalyst for stocks, it’s a direct entry into the inflation path that has kept the Federal Reserve in tight rein and kept crypto markets locked in sideways ranges.
Oil price dynamics related to the Iran deal follow a clear causal chain: a decline in crude means lower expectations for the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which could reduce the Fed’s pressure to keep interest rates at restrictive levels. As a result, the dollar weakens and liquidity conditions improve, allowing risky assets, including Bitcoin, to reassess their value upwards.
BREAK:
BRENT BRENT FELL BELOW $100 AS OPTIMISM GROWS AROUND POSSIBLE US-IRAN DEAL
AGREEMENT COULD INCLUDE CEASEFIRE AND REOPENING OF THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ
NEARLY 20% OF THE WORLD’S OIL SUPPLY PASSED THROUGH THE STRAIT
MARKETS START TO SET PRICES IN A… pic.twitter.com/aLNOVzUwFM– The Bitcoin Times (@TheBitcoinTime) May 25, 2026
Brent crude stabilized for weeks above $100 after Iran disrupted the Strait of Hormuz, a vital corridor through which about 20% of the world’s oil supplies pass. AAA data also showed that national gasoline prices rose to their highest levels in four years as the Memorial Day holiday approached.
This inflationary burden led futures markets to price in the possibility that the Fed would raise rates rather than cut them, a scenario that would have been structurally harsh for cryptocurrencies. However, the framework agreement, although not yet finalized, completely changes these price calculations.
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