The launch of the first XRP spot ETF on Nasdaq was met with great excitement, but instead of rising, XRP fell around 8%, surprising investors who were expecting an instant rally. New data shows that while inflows were impressive on day one, the amount was still too small to move a $138 billion market cap asset like XRP.
Inflows of $245 million were not enough to drive up prices
The first ETF saw approximately $245 million in inflows and nearly $60 million in trading volume on its launch day. While this is a record for a new XRP product, it represents less than 1% of the total XRP market value.
This meant that the inflows were not strong enough to create demand pressure, so the price fell almost 8% as traders took profits and the hype died down.
ETF purchases did not affect public order books
Many believed that ETF inflows would instantly remove XRP from exchanges. However, the current structure shows that ETF inflows do not always match direct spot purchases, meaning they do not instantly drive prices higher.
Analysts estimate that for a significant price breakout, XRP could need 10-15 times larger inflows, equivalent to $3-5 billion in a single day.
Liquidity levels show why prices haven’t moved
Data from major exchanges shows that around 2.4 billion XRP tokens are liquid and ready to trade, equating to a value of around $5 billion. OTC desks reportedly hold an additional $5 billion to $12 billion in significant liquidity.
Large institutions that buy at OTC desks typically pay a 5% to 15% premium to avoid driving up prices in spot markets. While this is positive for supply reduction in the long term, it does not have an immediate impact on the trading price.
What XRP needs to exit
Technical analysis shows a bullish divergence forming on the RSI, which can signify a potential trend reversal. However, for a confirmed breakout, analysts are watching for a daily close above $2.68. To reach this level, strong new demand from multiple ETFs launching together may be necessary.
Experts estimate that at least $1 billion to $3 billion in flows in a single day could start to push XRP 40 to 50 cents higher, while $5 billion or more could produce a sharp rally.
