XRP is currently trading at $1.32, and although the price chart looks shaky, the on-chain data tells a completely different story.
The XRP Scarcity Index on the Binance platform recorded a reading of 0.59, the highest since the start of 2024, as currencies leave platforms at a rate that mechanically reduces the amount of supply available for sale.
The scale of these movements is not simple; On March 10 alone, approximately $738 million worth of XRP was withdrawn from major exchanges in just 24 hours. Analysts described the move as one of the largest daily net outflows recorded since the start of the year.
In February, a total of 7.03 billion XRP left centralized exchanges, with Binance accounting for around 3.38 billion. These changes in supply dynamics are beginning to impose a new reality, but prices have not yet fully reflected these changes.
XRP Price Prediction: Will $1.40 Hold as Platform Balances Dwindle?
XRP price currently sits at the $1.40 resistance zone, which analysts have identified as a crucial battleground. In contrast, the $1.27 to $1.30 range represents the next major support belt.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the daily time frame is hovering near level 42, which means that the currency is not in an oversold zone, but it is also not generating clear momentum signals. The 50-day EMA is also holding just above the current price, limiting recovery attempts during the day.
The real tension lies in the contrast between technical data and major portfolio movements; Whale wallets collected around 40 million XRP in March, although US-listed spot XRP funds – which manage $1.02 billion in assets – saw net outflows of $30.12 million during the same period.
Data from CoinShares indicates that outflows from global XRP funds reached $130 million for the month. This direct collision between institutional selling and whale buying occurs right at the $1.40 level.
On the chart, the $1.27 level is the true dividing line. As long as the price remains stable above this level, the accumulation hypothesis remains valid, especially with whales stepping in and ETF flows beginning to stabilize, which could open the door to breaking through the $1.40 level and progressing to higher levels if buying momentum follows.
But the current scene resembles a “tug of war” as XRP is likely to fluctuate between $1.27 and $1.40 until market trends become clear, given the presence of heavy accumulation on the one hand and continued selling pressure on the other, with neither yet in full control.
If the $1.27 level is clearly breached with high trading volume, the current structure could quickly collapse, paving the way for a deeper pullback. In this case, the price will have stopped respecting the consolidation zone, which is a technical signal that always trumps the data coming from the chain.
What sets this cycle apart is the presence of the institutional class, with players like Bitwise holding huge stakes in XRP via ETFs. This means that any outflow, even small, could have a big impact on the order book, while Ripple continues to build out its infrastructure in the background, the kind of long-term stories that big players prefer to anticipate.
The position