$XRP could be showing early signs of a change in the dynamics of its monthly RSI from a downtrend to an uptrend after months of persistent weakness.
This is according to the market outlook of EGRAG Crypto, a leading market analyst. In a Message On July 5, he emphasized that this latest move is not just another short-term rebound, but the start of a distribution phase targeting higher levels for the month. $XRP RSI.
In its commentary, EGRAG highlighted a pattern of macroeconomic dynamics that emerged during previous $XRP market cycles. It also identified how the monthly RSI briefly fell below a historically important support zone.
$XRP Fell below the historical RSI support zone
EGRAG said the RSI fell into region 40, an area it had never visited before in its history. This happened in June, when $XRPThe RSI of fell to a low of 40.59.
This saw the altcoin oscillator move below a historic support zone that has repeatedly coincided with major cycle lows. In the previous market cyclesthe indicator formed a clear 1-2-3 bottom pattern before momentum shifted to the upside. The monthly RSI retests the support level around 43.66 three times, forms a durable bottom, and then begins to recover higher.
In the first circle, the monthly RSI fell to 44.25, forming 1 in December 2019, then fell to 43.75 in March 2020, forming 2. It then concluded the accumulation with a final decline to 44.01 in June 2020.
During the second circle, the $XRP The oscillator plunged to 43.90 in June 2022, 43.95 in August 2022 and 44.42 in December 2022. This formed bottom patterns 1, 2 and 3 respectively.
This time, however, the oscillator has fallen below that historical range. Rather than viewing this development as purely bearish, EGRAG believes that the steeper decline could represent a temporary deviation intended to shake up weaker market participants before momentum begins to recover. EGRAG called this the manipulation phase.
Notably, the oscillator is rebounding after touching the 40 region, currently at 42.5. The recovery suggests that momentum is starting to turn positive again.
$XRP RSI following the AMD model
Meanwhile, EGRAG discussed in more detail the current development with the application of the accumulation, manipulation and distribution (AMD) model. He noted that this model can also be applied to the monthly oscillator instead of just price analysis.
According to the analyst, the expected accumulation phase was around the historical support zone, but the $XRP The RSI has fallen below. This is a manipulation which, according to him, precedes a decisive breakout upwards.
To achieve this, EGRAG has defined several important levels. A recovery above 43.66 would represent the first sign of improving momentum, while a break above 46.50 would strengthen the bullish case. However, the analyst considers a monthly close above the 50 level to be the most significant confirmation of this fact. $XRPThe macroeconomic dynamics of the country have changed.
Notably, a rise in the RSI, especially over longer time frames, shows that bullish momentum is returning to the market. Such a scenario would have bullish implications for the $XRP price, which could push it higher.