Over the past week, Bitcoin ($BTC) traded between $62,000 and $72,000. Although the bullish conditions were not met, the leading digital asset managed to hold its bottom.
Analysts at cryptocurrency exchange Bitfinex revealed in the latest Bitfinex Alpha report that the current crypto market environment is being reshaped due to changing expectations from the Federal Reserve and inflation risks. These factors have created short-term pressure on risky assets like gold and $BTC; In any case, the floor of the latter remained intact.
Bitcoin in limbo
On-chain data shows that neither bulls nor bears are firmly in control. With $BTC Trading in the $62,500-$72,000 consolidation zone, the market appears to be in limbo rather than a prolonged bearish phase.
Bitfinex analysts presented two bullish tests for a potential sustained uptrend on shorter time frames, but they all failed. The tests were sustained supply in the spot exchange-traded fund (ETF) market and a calming of the derivatives complex, with funding moving from neutral to negative.
Faced with this failure, two opposing forces are now weighing on market sentiment toward inflation: the potential for energy risk mitigation following a U.S.-Iran peace deal and the Fed’s focus on pushing inflation rather than immediate relief in crude prices.
For $BTC To continue to maintain its floor, the Fed must be prepared to “keep its cool,” according to experts. It remains to be seen how the market will evolve until this happens.
Fragile Polish conditions
Analysts further explained that ETFs are currently the first evidence of market indecision. These products failed to establish an uptrend and instead reverted to net redemptions. Total ETF trading volume has declined significantly, but it is still not low enough to support a bearish scenario. They are therefore also in a state of uncertainty and not in a bear market.
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However, a structural perspective indicates that $BTC trades below the active investor’s cost basis. The $68,500-$72,000 area remains the main overhead supply band, and analysts expect further compression into the $62,000-$64,000 range, or broader moves between $60,000-$70,000 in the coming days.
As the market yields to bulls or bears, the $68,500 to $72,000 range should provide significant resistance as many investors in this range are lost and likely to sell at break-even. SO, $BTC It now has three key levels: the base floor of $54,000, the break-even point of $72,000 for recent buyers, and the $77,200 threshold for short-term holders.
