Bitcoin’s path to a market bottom could come as soon as next month, if the price of gold-denominated Bitcoin is any indication, according to Rony Szuster, head of research at Brazil’s largest crypto exchange, Mercado Bitcoin.
In dollar terms, the most recent peak was in October 2025, at around $126,000. If the current cycle follows past patterns, the downturn could extend through the end of 2026, Szuster wrote in a report shared with CoinDesk.
But when the price of gold is assessed, the timeline changes. Bitcoin peaked against gold in January 2025. Applying the same pattern over 12 to 13 months would place a potential bottom around February 2026, with a recovery possibly beginning in March.
This divergence reflects broader macroeconomic forces.
Since the start of Donald Trump’s new term, markets have faced aggressive tariffs, institutional conflicts in the United States and growing tensions with China and Iran. Growing tensions with the latter have since led to continued military conflict.
As a result, global uncertainty, measured via the World Uncertainty Index, has exploded. Gold has benefited from this shift, rising more than 80% over the past year to $5,280. As capital turned into bullion, bitcoin weakened against it sooner than against the dollar, the Mercado Bitcoin analyst wrote.
Exchange-traded funds have also added pressure. Since November, about $7.8 billion has been withdrawn from spot Bitcoin ETFs, or about 12% of the $61.6 billion total.
However, this fear-driven selloff only tells part of the picture.
As reactive capital flees Bitcoin, large-scale investors or “whales” are treating the economic slowdown as an accumulation zone, the report adds, highlighting that major Abu Dhabi investment firms Mubadala Investment Company and Al Warda Investments added spot exposure to Bitcoin ETFs in mid-February.
In this context, Szuster calls on investors to build their positions intelligently and leverage a dollar-cost averaging strategy to take advantage of the current market fear and avoid timing issues.
“Historically, buying during periods of fear has been more effective than during euphoria,” he writes. “Does that mean that it’s already the bottom? No. But it means that, statistically, we are in the zone where the best average prices are usually built.”
