According to the weekly report published by Matrixport, Bitcoin (BTC) has been on a downward trend since mid-October 2025.
The report notes that market sentiment is becoming increasingly cautious and with the re-emergence of the concept of the “four-year cycle,” many investors are predicting that pressure on Bitcoin could continue throughout 2026.
The report states that tightening volatility, reduced leverage, and weakening risk appetite over the past few months have put pressure on the price of Bitcoin. He noted a significant change in market positioning, considering derivatives, ETF flows and technical indicators. Additionally, the impending expiration of the largest Bitcoin option in history has made strike price distribution a critical indicator for monitoring market pressure and potential opportunities.
Matrixport noted that investors generally tend to be more conservative as the year draws to a close and the decline in risk appetite has been particularly pronounced during this period. It was, however, felt that reallocation of funds and consolidation of risk budgets at the start of the new year could pave the way for a quicker turnaround in market sentiment.
From a technical analysis perspective, it was noted that the bearish momentum has slowed down, but a clear bullish consensus has not yet formed. According to the report, the market could move from a phase where “downside risks outweigh upside risks” to a phase where “downside risks are limited, but catalysts are needed for upside.”
Current Bitcoin prices and weekly stochastic indicators also support this cautious outlook. The weekly stochastic indicator falling to the 17% level suggests that the market may have entered oversold territory, while a short-term technical recovery is possible, although it requires a strong trigger.
*This does not constitute investment advice.
