Delphi Digital calls you ahead of time. In its latest outlook, the research firm says the Federal Reserve is on track to move from a drag on cryptocurrencies to a mild tailwind by 2026. As rate cuts and the fading of quantitative tightening (QT) combine into the first clearly positive liquidity backdrop since early 2022.
Could rate cuts be a key tailwind for cryptocurrencies in 2026?
The Federal Reserve’s interest rate path into next year is the clearest it has been in years. Another 25 basis point cut will occur in December 2025, bringing federal funds to approximately 3.5% to 3.75%. The forward curve quotes at least 3 more cuts until 2026,… pic.twitter.com/ysFcp3zWOF-Delphi Digital (@Delphi_Digital) December 4, 2025
The markets already value the change. Futures imply another 25 basis point cut in December 2025, which would reduce the federal funds rate to about 3.5%-3.75%. From there, the forward curve suggests at least three more cuts in 2026. It would leave policy rates in the low 3% range by the end of the year if the trend holds. Delphi emphasizes that this is not a sudden “pivot” moment. It looks more like a controlled descent from the aggressive adjustment cycle that defined the 2022-2024 period.
QT ends, TGA changes and PVP is empty – liquidity finally turns positive
Rate cuts are only half the story. Delphi Digital points out the pipelines behind the scenes. Where now several levers are moving in favor of cryptocurrencies at the same time. As of December 1, the QT effectively comes to an end, slowing the pace at which the Federal Reserve drains liquidity from the system. At the same time:
- The Treasury General Account (TGA) is expected to withdraw money rather than top it up, returning cash to the market.
- The reverse repo (RRP) facility is now completely depleted, meaning the parked liquidity pool is no longer being taken out of circulation.
Taken together, Delphi Digital maintains, this creates the first positive net liquidity environment since early 2022. Short-term benchmarks like SOFR and fed funds have already moved into the high 3% range. While real rates are recovering from their 2023-2024 highs. Nothing has broken, but the pressure has clearly eased. For risk assets, and especially cryptocurrencies, that combination historically matters more than the overall rate alone.
What this setup means for Bitcoin and major crypto assets
Delphi Digital frames 2026 as the year in which politics stops acting as a macro headwind and begins to behave as a gentle tailwind. In his opinion, this context tends to favor:
- Duration assets like growth stocks.
- Hard assets like gold.
- Digital assets with clear and structural demand, in particular Bitcoin and large-cap cryptocurrencies with ETFs and institutional flows behind them.
They also remind readers that previous cycles were driven less by halvings and more by waves of global liquidity. With the easing of US policy, large reserves of cash in money market funds and non-US central banks remain active. Delphi Digital sees room for another bullish leg if risk appetite remains. The message to cryptocurrency traders is simple, even if the macro is not. The era of “fighting the Fed” appears to be coming to an end. If the current path is maintained. The year 2026 could be the first full year of this cycle in which monetary policy and liquidity finally lean in the same direction as Bitcoin.
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