CryptoQuant emphasized the importance of updated PCE inflation data for July, August and September 2025. The new figures indicate that inflation is rising, with September PCE rising to 2.8% annually, the highest point since April 2024. This change raises surprises in the speed of monetary easing and forces markets to reconsider risk positioning.
Bitcoin is way over your head
Bitcoin is still trading at about a third of its all-time high of 123,000, unable to recover as other asset classes gain pace. Continued inflationary pressure undermines the argument for aggressive rate cuts that have proven beneficial to Bitcoin rallies. The data indicates that there are still unfavorable macroeconomic conditions for speculative assets in the short term.
On the contrary, gold and silver continue to record new all-time highs. Gold has risen nearly 70 percent annually compared to previous years to reach $4,500, while silver has soared more than 134 percent to $69 per ounce. According to CryptoQuant charts, gold is trading 25 percent above its 200-day moving average, and silver is 45 percent above the same parameter. These extended levels reflect that the last time there was such a high capital rotation into hard assets was during the 2020 COVID liquidity boom.
Stock markets refuse to go bankrupt
Traditional risk markets are also strong even as inflation is rising. The S&P 500 is just 1 percent below the all-time high and the Nasdaq is trading about 3 percent below the all-time high. The same price movement indicates that investors remain optimistic about earnings growth and liquidity situation despite rising inflation.
Among the most notable developments, it is worth mentioning the changing correlations of Bitcoin. BTC has been negatively correlated with gold since July and has separated from the Nasdaq since August. This disconnect is an indicator that Bitcoin is no longer a risk asset or hedge, and is prone to losses on macro transitions.
The implication of PCE data in the future
Bitcoin still might not perform as well as it should compared to safe havens and stocks unless there is a real decline in inflation in future issuances. A less aggressive PCE move would also revive hopes of an easy Fed and give Bitcoin a second wind. Until then, macro pressure is one of the predominant forces.
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