A breakthrough in the CLARITY Act has proven elusive as discussions on stablecoin awards have lagged behind the White House’s self-imposed March 1, 2026 deadline. Yet traders at prediction platform Polymarket are betting there is a 73% chance the landmark legislation will be activated in 2026.
Speaking at the Milken Institute’s Future of Finance event, Republican French Hill urged the Senate to adopt the House-passed CLARITY Act language as a simple solution.
In July, the House of Representatives advanced the CLARITY Act (HR 3633) through a command 294-134 vote, thus gaining strong bipartisan support. Therefore, the strong vote helped raise hopes among industry players that the legislation would soon be passed, increasing pressure on those who have begun to finalize the final draft.
Lawmakers have yet to resolve their differences over possible stablecoin yield incentives
Lawmakers on the Senate Banking Committee have reached an impasse over whether stablecoin issues and crypto platforms should be able to offer yield-like benefits to customers. Until now, most traditional banks have argued that paying users to hold stablecoins blurs the line with bank deposits and could harm financial stability, but crypto companies believe that participation rewards are key to innovation.
Sharing the concerns expressed by many banks, JPMorgan Chief Financial Officer Jeremy Barnum addressed the issue on stablecoin yield incentives In January, a warning: “Creating a shadow banking system that somehow has all the hallmarks of banking, including something very much like an interest-paying deposit, without the associated prudential safeguards that have been developed over hundreds of years of banking regulation, is an obviously dangerous and undesirable solution.” thing.”
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Amid divisions between banks, crypto groups and lawmakers, Patrick Witt, executive director of the White House crypto council, urged resolvers to resolve their differences by March 1. He warned that any delay beyond the target would only stall the increase and threaten the future of the bill.
Apparently, they have had constructive discussions over the past few weeks and attempted to come up with draft text that would allow for modest incentives tied to stablecoin activity while limiting unused yields, but the two sides remain at odds.
Summer Mersinger, CEO of the Blockchain Association, tried to calm the crypto community over the delays. On
Senators are still rethinking markup dates. However, if approved by committee, the CLARITY Act would go to the full Senate.
The crypto community remains optimistic that the bill could be approved in 2026.
On the Kalshi prediction platform, 41% of traders are betting that the CLARITY Act would be activated before June, and 15% before May. Overall, 65% believe the legislation will reach the president’s desk before 2027. Meanwhile, 73% of Polymarket traders are betting the legislation could be signed into law in 2026.
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Additionally, Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse told reporters he is Hoping that the CLARITY Act can be approved by April, estimating a 90% probability if negotiations continue positively. However, some analysts considermthMissing the March deadline will only lengthen the already lengthy legislative calendar, potentially delaying progress until after the November midterms.
The current shutdown also follows the withdrawal of support from Coinbase. At the time the exchange withdrew its support, some market observers had warned that it could block any meaningful crypto legislation for the session. Financial policy analyst Jaret Seiberg of TD Cowen had even pointed out that the performance of stablecoins presents risks that could have negative consequences on the broader structure of the crypto market. Invoice. Invoice“We view this as potentially derailing market structure legislation in this Congress. We view the delay as negative for crypto and positive for banks. »
He added that opting out usually means supporters believe the bill cannot be saved through negotiation. Although Coinbase’s Armstrong justified his decision, saying the project had “too many problems” for him to support.
Nonetheless, other crypto players continued to support the bill even after Coinbase dropped the ball. Ideally, if the bill were approved, oversight of digital assets would be shared by the SEC and CFTC.
