The majority of bettors on forecasting platform Polymarket are betting on Congress’ failure to pass the government spending bill before next November, according to a new survey of decentralized forecasting markets.
Polymarket odds bettors don’t expect government funding bill to pass before November
According to the survey, 84% of users of the Polymarket betting platform are betting on Congress’ inability to pass the government funding bill before November 30, while only 30% of them expect Congress not to pass it before October 31, while only 1% expect a deal to be reached by the middle of this month due to the limited time horizon that remains.
The latest data from the Polymarket survey comes as the U.S. government shutdown approaches its third week after U.S. lawmakers failed to agree on major spending bills before an Oct. 1 deadline.
This has resulted in thousands of federal employees being laid off due to political unrest, with Vice President JD Vance saying in a recent Fox News interview that more jobs would be at risk if Congress does not find a solution.
He added: “The longer this situation lasts, the more severe the budget cuts will become…To be clear, some of these cuts could be very painful. »
At a Cabinet meeting at the White House last Thursday, Trump pledged to withhold funding “only” for Democratic programs in response to the shutdown.
Asset: "We will make reductions which will be permanent. And we’re only going to cut Democratic programs. I hate to tell you." pic.twitter.com/OJbmEerJjK
-Aaron Rupar (@atrupar) October 9, 2025
“They are the ones who wanted it,” he added, so they must “take some of the medicine they wanted.”
Trump faces scrutiny over his ties to the crypto industry
Trump – whose 2024 election campaign was largely focused on his support for the blockchain sector – has repeatedly sought to ease strict measures imposed on the digital assets sector, but his critics believe his plans in the crypto sector could raise ethical concerns during his US presidency.
For her part, Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) said in a hearing earlier this year, “For Congress to approve a comprehensive regulatory framework for digital assets, it is necessary to end the president’s corruption related to the sector.”
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