Gold had only one goal during a geopolitical crisis: to go up. On May 26, she did not cooperate.
Spot gold fell between 0.6% and 0.7%, settling between $4,537 and $4,544 an ounce. The culprit was familiar. Escalating tensions between the United States and Iran have driven up oil prices, reigniting inflation fears that have caused traders to recalculate their interest rate expectations. When inflation appears more stubborn, the “higher rates for longer” narrative gains momentum, and gold, which pays no yield, suddenly seems less attractive than interest-bearing assets.
A split personality on the gold markets
The gold market itself hasn’t even been able to agree on a direction to follow. While spot prices fell, U.S. gold futures for June delivery actually rose slightly, gaining between 0.3% and 0.5% during the same trading session. This divergence between spot and futures is worth paying attention to.
Since the beginning of 2026, the trend has repeated itself. Tensions between the United States and Iran are flaring, oil is surging, inflation expectations are rising, and gold is experiencing these counterintuitive declines. Several examples of this dynamic have occurred over the past few months, creating a rhythm that traders are beginning to anticipate.
Crypto Markets Feeling the Shakes
Oil-linked perpetual futures on Hyperliquid, the decentralized trading platform, jumped more than 5% following previous US and Israeli strikes against Iran. During an escalation in April 2026, Bitcoin traded around $74,335 with a 1.6% decline, coinciding with a 5.7% rise in Brent crude. Ether and Solana faced similar downward pressure during this episode.
What is truly new is the role that decentralized platforms play in this regard. Hyperliquid oil-linked perpetuals have given traders a way to express a geopolitical point of view without touching traditional commodity markets. This 5% increase represents real capital circulating through blockchain-based infrastructure in response to military conflict.
What this means for investors
The practical point to remember is correlation risk. If your portfolio contains both gold and Bitcoin as “hedges,” you may find that they both underperform during the same type of event. Gold is falling because inflation fears outweigh safe-haven demand. Bitcoin is falling because risk appetite is contracting.
The divergence between gold futures and spot contracts suggests that long-term positioning still favors the metal, even as spot prices take short-term hits from inflationary anxiety. Likewise, Bitcoin pullbacks during peak oil have always been followed by rallies once the acute fear subsides.
